Meta is expected to beat Q2 Wall Street estimates on strong advertising demand and early returns from AI investment, with Bank of America projecting $60.6 billion（約9.7兆円） in revenue and $7.50 earnings per share versus consensus of $60.2 billion（約9.6兆円） and $7.18. However, investors remain skeptical about whether Meta's sharply rising capital spending—now guided to $135 billion（約22兆円） to $150 billion（約24兆円）—will deliver measurable revenue growth and returns, particularly as the broader tech industry commits roughly $700 billion（約110兆円） in capex this year ahead of wider enterprise adoption of AI. The company's stock has fallen 24% since it last raised spending guidance in Q3 2025, reflecting broader anxiety across Big Tech about the payoff from AI infrastructure buildout.
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Meta is expected to report Q2 revenue of $60.6 billion（約9.7兆円） and earnings per share of $7.50, above Wall Street consensus of $60.2 billion（約9.6兆円） and $7.18, according to Bank of America. For Q3, the bank expects Meta to guide revenue of $60.5 billion（約9.7兆円） to $63.5 billion（約10兆円）, roughly 18% to 24% growth year over year. The company may also trim expense guidance by $1 billion（約1600億円） to $2 billion（約3200億円） following recent layoffs while raising capital expenditure outlook to $135 billion（約22兆円） to $150 billion（約24兆円）, up from $125 billion（約20兆円） to $145 billion（約23兆円）.
Why it matters
Investors are pressing Meta to prove that its massive AI spending will generate real returns rather than simply consuming capital. Though healthy advertising demand and AI-driven ad improvements support near-term results, the broader tech industry faces what Wedbush Securities calls an 'air pocket stage'—roughly $700 billion（約110兆円） in Big Tech capital expenditure this year is funding infrastructure buildout ahead of actual enterprise adoption. Meta's stock has fallen roughly 24% since its third-quarter 2025 call, when it guided to higher 2026 spending, versus a 5% gain for the Nasdaq, reflecting investor doubt about timing.
What to watch
Meta reports second-quarter results after markets close today. Bank of America raised its 2027 revenue estimate by $5 billion（約8000億円）, now projecting $316 billion（約51兆円） in revenue and $35.00 in earnings per share, citing potential AI capacity benefits from a reported possible compute deal with Anthropic. Analysts expect more clarity on how newer bets like subscriptions and business agents will monetize over the next two earnings cycles.
Meta Platforms is expected to release second-quarter results after markets close today, posting revenue of $60.6 billion（約9.7兆円） and earnings per share of $7.50 according to Bank of America's forecast, above Wall Street consensus estimates of $60.2 billion（約9.6兆円） and $7.18 respectively. The bank cites healthy advertising demand and early returns from artificial intelligence investment as drivers of the outperformance. Analysts have flagged that investors will focus heavily on Meta's AI initiatives during the earnings call, including advertising improvements tied to AI model integration, a product called Muse Spark, and potential external compute sales.
Looking ahead to Q3, Bank of America expects Meta to guide revenue between $60.5 billion（約9.7兆円） and $63.5 billion（約10兆円）, representing roughly 18% to 24% growth year over year. On the cost side, the bank believes Meta could trim the top end of its expense guidance by $1 billion（約1600億円） to $2 billion（約3200億円） following recent workforce reductions, while simultaneously raising capital expenditure guidance to $135 billion（約22兆円） to $150 billion（約24兆円）, up from the previous range of $125 billion（約20兆円） to $145 billion（約23兆円）, driven by higher memory costs. Bank of America separately raised its 2027 revenue estimate by $5 billion（約8000億円） to $316 billion（約51兆円）, with earnings per share projected at $35.00, citing potential AI capacity benefits following reports of a possible compute deal with Anthropic.
The earnings arrive against a backdrop of broader investor unease about AI spending across Big Tech. Wedbush Securities characterized the moment as a critical 'gut check' for the tech sector, noting that investors are focused on whether heavy AI infrastructure investment will translate into stronger revenue growth. Wedbush called the current phase an 'air pocket stage,' with roughly $700 billion（約110兆円） in Big Tech capex this year fueling infrastructure buildout ahead of broader enterprise adoption. The firm highlighted that Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Oracle and Palantir have all faced investor pressure as markets question when elevated capital expenditure will generate meaningful returns.
Meta's stock performance underscores this skepticism. The company's shares have fallen roughly 24% since its third-quarter 2025 call, when it guided to a step-up in 2026 spending, versus a 5% gain for the Nasdaq. Bank of America acknowledged that while Meta's compute demand appears structural and AI is already improving ad targeting, the market remains uncertain about the monetization timeline for newer bets such as subscriptions and business agents. The bank and other analysts expect more clarity on these fronts over the next two earnings cycles.
Meta enters Q2 earnings season with strong near-term fundamentals—healthy advertising demand and measurable improvements in ad targeting from AI—yet faces mounting investor skepticism about the returns on its accelerating capital spending. Bank of America's forecast for revenue and earnings above consensus reflects confidence in core advertising business and early AI payoffs, but the broader context reveals a tech industry under pressure. Wedbush Securities characterizes the current moment as an 'air pocket stage,' in which roughly $700 billion（約110兆円） in Big Tech capex this year funds infrastructure buildout without yet translating to stronger revenue growth. Meta's stock performance captures this tension: a 24% drop since third-quarter 2025 (when the company guided to elevated 2026 spending) against the Nasdaq's 5% gain signals that investors doubt the near-term timing of AI spending returns, even as they acknowledge the long-term structural demand for compute capacity.
Bank of America's $5 billion（約8000億円） upward revision to 2027 revenue—now $316 billion（約51兆円）, reflecting potential benefits from a reported compute deal with Anthropic—suggests some path to payoff, yet the firm itself notes lingering uncertainty around newer monetization bets like subscriptions and business agents. Analysts are explicit that the next two earnings cycles will be critical for clarifying whether Meta's expanded capex roadmap will yield measurable business results. For now, Meta meets consensus on advertising strength while remaining on trial for the broader thesis that AI infrastructure spending precedes, and ultimately drives, material revenue acceleration.
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