Nomura's Amamiya: AI data center builds may slow into 2028 unless Hinojosa, Texas legislature cooperate

The U.S. midterm elections delivered a stronger-than-expected showing for Democrats, including wins in governor races in Texas and Ohio, states where AI data center construction plans are concentrated. But Amamiya emphasizes that the gains went to moderate centrists who are mindful of capitalism, and no Democratic governor-elect has framed AI itself as a threat. Instead, they are asking for safeguards on power prices and water resources, and they have said existing construction should proceed. That distinction means the near-term policy question is not whether AI data centers are welcome, but how quickly a permitting framework can be built.

On monetary policy, Nomura has changed its Fed view. The bank now expects two more rate hikes, in December 2026 and March 2027, rather than ending the tightening cycle with a December move. The revision reflects October 2026 U.S. CPI coming in above expectations and several FOMC participants signaling a hawkish scenario, with most expected to pencil in an additional 2027 hike in the December dot plot.

Amamiya also sees a positive side to AI regulation. Delays in data center approvals may slow AI investment, but a pause is needed because spending had grown too fast, and rules could raise the sustainability of the AI boom by preventing overheated hyperscaler competition. The bigger risk, in her view, is not regulation but whether hyperscalers and giant AI firms keep their commitment to AI investment, and she does not expect that commitment to waver immediately.