What happened
In an excerpt from their co-authored book, investor Okeidon (270 million yen in assets) and Tonarism CEO Yuya Shinkawa say generative AI demand is expanding on the semiconductor front while warning of bubble-like heat.
Why it matters
The Nasdaq Composite rose 43.4% in 2023, 28.6% in 2024 and 20.4% in 2025, and Nvidia's shares climbed more than tenfold in a few years, making the real-demand-versus-bubble question central for investors, the excerpt suggests.
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The excerpt frames the current AI market against the late-1990s IT bubble, noting that some voices see comparable overheating while demand for generative AI is expanding on the semiconductor front. That tension is the book's starting point: whether the rally is expectation-led or backed by real corporate earnings.
The numbers cited trace the boom's scale. The Nasdaq Composite gained 43.4% in 2023, then 28.6% in 2024 and 20.4% in 2025, with record highs recurring. Nvidia's shares rose more than tenfold in a few years. The excerpt attributes the inflow of investment money to a fear of missing the "next big wave."
The authors bring two vantage points: Okeidon as a long-term investor in high-dividend, dividend-growth and semiconductor/AI stocks, and Shinkawa as the head of a semiconductor trading company. The excerpt also notes that the wave spread beyond U.S. companies to Japanese stocks tagged as generative AI plays, with Nvidia popular among Japanese retail investors amid the new NISA program.
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