Trump trades weapons, AI chips, nuclear deals for Middle East investment

Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 marked the beginning of a systematic overhaul of U.S. Middle East relationships built on direct exchange: Washington supplies strategic assets in return for financial commitments and procurement orders. The framework became visible through a series of high-profile visits and announcements spanning the spring, summer, and fall of 2025.

Saudi Arabia serves as the flagship example. During Trump's visit in May 2025, the White House announced a Saudi commitment to expand economic ties through investments and procurement worth $600 billion（約96兆円）, including an arms deal valued at nearly $142 billion（約23兆円） covering air and space systems, air and missile defense, maritime security, land-force systems, and communications equipment, alongside major contracts for Boeing and American technology companies. In November, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman doubled down, raising the investment commitment to "nearly a trillion dollars" and signing a strategic defense agreement that included approval for F-35 fighter jet sales and nearly 300 American tanks, alongside a framework for cooperation on critical minerals and a memorandum of understanding on artificial intelligence. The U.S. Department of Commerce also approved Saudi AI company Humain to purchase the equivalent of up to 35,000 NVIDIA Blackwell GB300 chips, subject to American security restrictions and oversight. The climax came last week when U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman signed a Section 123 agreement for civil nuclear cooperation, with the U.S. Department of Energy describing it as the foundation for a "multi-decade partnership worth billions of dollars." Trump subsequently added a condition: the agreement will not take effect unless Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords, and it must be submitted to Congress for review during a 90-day session.

The United Arab Emirates pursued a parallel path, securing access to America's most advanced artificial intelligence technology as its strategic prize. In May 2025, the White House announced agreements worth more than $200 billion（約32兆円） alongside a $1.4 trillion（約220兆円） UAE investment framework over the next decade, including Etihad Airways' $14.5 billion（約2.3兆円） commitment to purchase Boeing aircraft and GE Aerospace engines and Abu Dhabi's pledge to raise energy sector investments from about $70 billion（約11兆円） to $440 billion（約70兆円） by 2035. Under the "US-UAE Artificial Intelligence Acceleration Partnership," Abu Dhabi gained approval to build a computing complex with a planned capacity of five gigawatts—the largest outside the United States—with American participation and under U.S. security and oversight. The Commerce Department also approved G42, an Abu Dhabi-based AI and cloud computing company backed by Mubadala, Microsoft, and Silver Lake, to purchase the equivalent of up to 35,000 Blackwell GB300 chips.

Qatar combined commercial commitments with extraordinary security benefits. In May 2025, the White House announced "economic activity exchanges" worth at least $1.2 trillion（約190兆円）, with commercial agreements exceeding $243.5 billion（約39兆円）, the largest being Qatar Airways' roughly $96 billion（約15兆円） purchase of Boeing aircraft and GE engines. More significantly, in September, following an Israeli strike targeting Hamas leaders in Doha, Trump signed a presidential order declaring that any armed attack on Qatar's territory, sovereignty, or critical infrastructure would be considered a threat to the peace and security of the United States, committing Washington to military action if necessary—an unusual guarantee for a non-NATO country. Separately, Qatar transferred a Boeing 747-8 aircraft, valued at approximately $400 million（約640億円）, to the U.S. Department of Defense, where it was converted for presidential use and entered service earlier this month.

Turkey's engagement mirrored this pattern. Last September, Turkish Airlines announced orders for up to 75 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and plans for up to 150 additional Boeing 737 MAX aircraft—a combined 225 potential U.S.-built aircraft, with Boeing estimating the Dreamliner agreement alone would support more than 123,000 American jobs. That same week, Turkish state energy company Botas signed a 20-year agreement to purchase about 70 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas beginning in 2026, primarily from U.S. sources, and signed a preliminary agreement with Woodside for additional LNG supplies from Louisiana. In return, Trump signaled in early July his intention to lift sanctions on Turkey and reconsider its F-35 program membership, though such moves still face Congressional hurdles. Turkey also removed additional tariffs on American products as negotiations progressed.

Other regional partners received tailored packages. Bahrain joined in July 2025 with agreements worth more than $17 billion（約2.7兆円）, including Gulf Air's $7 billion（約1.1兆円） commitment to purchase Boeing aircraft and GE engines, alongside a memorandum of understanding on civil nuclear cooperation. Kuwait's relationship remained security-focused, with Washington approving potential arms sales totaling nearly $2.95 billion（約4700億円） since February 2025, including Patriot missile upgrades and Abrams tank support. Iraq opened its energy sector to American companies differently, signing memorandums of understanding and non-binding agreements worth more than $60 billion（約9.6兆円） at a business summit, with companies including Chevron and ConocoPhillips, and Iraq's oil minister later estimating total recent agreement value at roughly $200 billion（約32兆円）. Jordan signed a reciprocal trade agreement last week that preserves preferential American market access for Jordanian exports while requiring Amman to grant nearly all U.S. products duty-free access and align more closely with American policies on export controls, investment screening, and sensitive technologies.

Parallel to these official transactions, Trump family and Jared Kushner-affiliated businesses expanded in the same countries. On April 30, 2025—two weeks before Trump's Doha visit—Qatari Diar partnered with DarGlobal to develop Trump International Golf Club Doha and Trump-branded villas. In Saudi Arabia, the Trump Organization launched two Trump-branded projects in Riyadh and Jeddah with a combined development value of approximately $10 billion（約1.6兆円）. In the UAE, Abu Dhabi-based MGX announced a $2 billion（約3200億円） Binance investment using USD1, a stablecoin affiliated with the Trump family, which reportedly held a 60% stake and was entitled to 75% of token-sale proceeds and 60% of operating income. Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners secured a $2 billion（約3200億円） commitment from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund before Trump's second term and raised another $1.5 billion（約2400億円） from Middle Eastern investors by end of 2024, including the Qatar Investment Authority and Abu Dhabi's Lunate; since Trump's return, Affinity Partners joined Saudi Arabia's PIF and Silver Lake in a roughly $55 billion（約8.8兆円） bid to acquire Electronic Arts. The article acknowledges there is no public evidence that any specific political decision was exchanged for a private business opportunity and therefore no basis to characterize the relationship as a quid pro quo, yet the overlap between countries negotiating with Washington and those hosting Trump family business ventures has become an increasingly prominent part of the debate surrounding the administration's Middle East policy.

Trump's Middle East strategy rests on a clear exchange: strategic assets—particularly advanced military systems, cutting-edge AI chips, and nuclear technology that have historically been difficult or impossible for regional partners to obtain—in return for financial commitments that benefit American defense contractors, energy companies, and other industries. Saudi Arabia emerges as the centerpiece of this model, moving from a $600 billion（約96兆円） commitment announced during Trump's May 2025 visit to "nearly a trillion dollars" by November, paired with F-35 fighter jet approvals, tank sales, and access to NVIDIA's most advanced AI chips. The UAE pursued AI access aggressively, securing approval for the largest computing complex outside the U.S. and similar chip purchases, while simultaneously committing to a $1.4 trillion（約220兆円） decade-long investment framework. Qatar and Turkey each secured distinct prizes—Qatar received an unusual security guarantee and approved a $400 million（約640億円） Boeing 747-8 aircraft transfer to the U.S. government for presidential use, while Turkey moved toward sanctions relief and potential F-35 reinstatement after years of exclusion.

Overlaying this official ledger is a parallel commercial landscape. The Trump Organization launched two Trump-branded projects in Saudi Arabia with a combined development value of approximately $10 billion（約1.6兆円）; Qatari Diar partnered with DarGlobal to develop Trump-branded golf and villa projects in Doha just two weeks before Trump's May visit; and Abu Dhabi's MGX announced a $2 billion（約3200億円） Binance investment using USD1, a stablecoin affiliated with the Trump family, which reportedly held a 60% stake and was entitled to 75% of token-sale proceeds and 60% of operating income. Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners secured a $2 billion（約3200億円） commitment from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund before Trump took office and raised another $1.5 billion（約2400億円） from Middle Eastern investors by end of 2024; since Trump's return, the firm joined Saudi Arabia's PIF and Silver Lake in a roughly $55 billion（約8.8兆円） bid to acquire video game publisher Electronic Arts. The body explicitly states there is no public evidence that any specific political decision was exchanged for a private business opportunity and therefore no basis to characterize the relationship as a quid pro quo, yet the overlap between negotiating countries and Trump family business hosts has become an increasingly prominent part of the debate surrounding the administration's Middle East policy.

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