Musk: SpaceX to hit $3.5 trillion revenue by 2033

SpaceX's IPO was one of the biggest ever, opening at a $1.8 trillion valuation, and an initial buying surge pushed it as high as $2.7 trillion. But that enthusiasm faded quickly. By around mid-July, the valuation had fallen to roughly $1.4 trillion, wiping out more than $1 trillion in market cap in just weeks. The stock has rebounded slightly since then but remains about 5% below its IPO price, while the S&P 500 has gained nearly 4% over the same period.

Musk remains confident, stating on X that SpaceX could generate $3.5 trillion in revenue by 2033 and that it will be worth more than the rest of Earth if goals are accomplished. SpaceX management pegs the total addressable market for its AI business, which includes the Grok AI model and data-center capacity sales, at $26.5 trillion. The company is building massive Colossus AI data centers, and Evercore ISI estimates capital expenditures could reach $360 billion by 2030, mostly for AI. Yet SpaceX's first-half revenue was only $12.5 billion, and it faces competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Alphabet and others.

The central tension is whether investors will keep funding this spending spree without profits. SpaceX's capital expenditures already jumped 308% in the first half to $28.5 billion, with 86% going to AI. If the company keeps ramping up spending, investors could punish the stock further, as they are already skeptical of negative free cash flow. The outcome hinges on whether Musk can convince everyday investors to buy and hold, rather than move in the opposite direction.