Anthropic backers confirmed to the Financial Times that the AI startup expects to go public in October with a targeted valuation of $2 trillion or higher, more than double its $965 billion Series H valuation in May. The Wall Street Journal reported the company's second-quarter 2026 revenue would more than double to $10.9 billion, with the company posting an operating profit for the first time.
At $2 trillion, Anthropic would need annual net profits in the neighborhood of $59 billion to $79 billion to match the valuation multiples of comparable Nasdaq 100 tech companies (34 times trailing earnings, 25 times forward earnings). The company is not yet profitable on a net-income basis—operating profit excludes interest, taxes, and other costs that can be substantial for a frontier AI lab. For comparison, Amazon booked $77.7 billion in net income in its most recent fiscal year, though a portion came from its Anthropic investment.
Why it matters (continued): Anthropic's run-rate revenue surged to $74.1 billion by mid-May (per data Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff shared), claiming to exceed OpenAI's $41.3 billion. Enterprise customers are stickier and more predictable than consumer subscriptions, giving Anthropic an advantage over OpenAI's consumer-focused ChatGPT base.
Investors will scrutinize Anthropic's compute access—whether it owns servers or holds long-term leases (predictable costs) or relies on short-term leases (volatile pricing). The company has deals with Amazon, Google, Broadcom, and SpaceX for GPU access. A planned acquisition of Decart AI for $6 billion would bring software for chip efficiency and an inference optimization team. If Anthropic IPOs first in October as planned, it will set the valuation benchmark against which OpenAI (expected to IPO in 2027) will be measured.
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Anthropic's planned October IPO at $2 trillion valuation marks a dramatic moment in AI commercialization, but the company faces a stark arithmetic challenge. At the valuation multiples typical for large-cap tech (34 times trailing earnings), Anthropic would need to generate $59 billion to $79 billion in annual net income—roughly equivalent to Amazon's recent fiscal-year net income of $77.7 billion. The company is nowhere close yet: though it is expected to post operating profit in second-quarter 2026 on $10.9 billion revenue, operating profit excludes debt interest, taxes, and the substantial costs of maintaining a frontier AI research lab. The gap between operating profit and net income could be material, making the path to justifying a $2 trillion valuation uncertain.
What works in Anthropic's favor is its enterprise revenue model and demonstrated growth. The company's run-rate revenue climbed from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $74.1 billion by mid-May (per Salesforce data), outpacing OpenAI's estimated $41.3 billion. Enterprise customers are stickier and more predictable than consumer subscriptions, a structural advantage over OpenAI's ChatGPT base. Anthropic has also been locking in compute capacity through deals with Amazon, Google, Broadcom, and SpaceX, and is acquiring Decart AI for $6 billion to gain software for chip efficiency. Long-term compute access translates to predictable margins; short-term leases would leave the company vulnerable to pricing shocks.
Investors and analysts will closely examine two mechanics in Anthropic's S-1 prospectus: revenue definitions and compute sourcing. The company's definition of what counts as revenue will signal sustainability, while clarity on whether compute is owned, long-term leased, or procured short-term will determine margin stability. If Anthropic goes public in October as expected, it will set the valuation precedent against which OpenAI (targeting 2027) will be priced—a significant advantage for Anthropic's narrative but a high bar to clear for both firms.
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