Jeremy Grantham, the investor famous for calling the dot-com bubble, has warned that the market is the most expensive in history and views SpaceX's massive IPO as a sign the AI-driven rally may be topping out. While his timing remains uncertain, his concern mirrors the pattern of irrational exuberance he observed in internet stocks during the late 1990s. Financial historians note that buy-and-hold investors in broad indexes recovered and eventually reached new highs even after severe crashes.
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Jeremy Grantham, the investor who predicted the dot-com bubble burst, has warned that the market is the most expensive in history. He views SpaceX's large IPO—which raised $75 billion（約12兆円） from investors—as a potential sign that the AI-driven rally may be approaching a top, similar to internet stock IPOs in the late 1990s.
Why it matters
Grantham's track record carries weight; the dot-com crash he foresaw saw the Nasdaq drop nearly 80% over several years and took about 15 years to recover. His concern mirrors the massive investment flowing into AI stocks, which he sees as echoing the overzealous internet bubble. However, he acknowledges the timing of any market top is uncertain.
What to watch
Rather than panic-selling, the article suggests that buy-and-hold investors in broad index funds historically recovered and went on to new highs even after major crashes. Those concerned about AI exposure can consider shifting into defensive sectors like consumer staples or utilities, or into value-oriented ETFs.
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