Bernstein raises server CPU market forecast to $223 billion（約36兆円） as agentic AI shifts data center demand from GPUs to CPUs, positioning Arm, AMD, and Intel as major beneficiaries.

What happened: Analyst David Dai at Bernstein increased his server CPU total addressable market estimate to $223 billion（約36兆円）, up from a prior forecast of $137 billion（約22兆円）. This reflects a shift from generative AI chatbots to agentic AI (AI that autonomously handles tasks), which requires more CPU workload relative to GPU workload. The CPU-to-GPU ratio in AI data centers is moving from 1:4 or 1:8 to 1:1 or higher.

Why it matters: Bernstein expects this structural change to drive sustained growth in server CPUs through 2030, implying a TAM of $137 billion（約22兆円） by 2030 (roughly six times the 2025 TAM of $37 billion（約5.9兆円）) under the base case, with an upside scenario of $330 billion（約53兆円）. The shift signals that CPU-focused chipmakers will see stronger and more durable demand than previously assumed, making them direct beneficiaries of the next phase of AI infrastructure investment.

What to watch: Bernstein raised price targets for three chipmakers—Arm to $500 (implying 21% upside), AMD to $600, and Intel to $100—and now forecasts Arm reaching $22 billion（約3.5兆円） in revenue by 2030, above Arm's own $15 billion（約2.4兆円） target. Arm is identified as 'the structural beneficiary' due to its power-efficient architecture suited for agentic AI workloads.