Bernstein raises server CPU market forecast to $223 billion

What happened

Analyst David Dai at Bernstein increased his server CPU total addressable market estimate to $223 billion（約36兆円）, up from a prior forecast of $137 billion（約22兆円）. This reflects a shift from generative AI chatbots to agentic AI (AI that autonomously handles tasks), which requires more CPU workload relative to GPU workload. The CPU-to-GPU ratio in AI data centers is moving from 1:4 or 1:8 to 1:1 or higher.

Why it matters

Bernstein expects this structural change to drive sustained growth in server CPUs through 2030, implying a TAM of $137 billion（約22兆円） by 2030 (roughly six times the 2025 TAM of $37 billion（約5.9兆円）) under the base case, with an upside scenario of $330 billion（約53兆円）. The shift signals that CPU-focused chipmakers will see stronger and more durable demand than previously assumed, making them direct beneficiaries of the next phase of AI infrastructure investment.

What to watch

Bernstein raised price targets for three chipmakers—Arm to $500 (implying 21% upside), AMD to $600, and Intel to $100—and now forecasts Arm reaching $22 billion（約3.5兆円） in revenue by 2030, above Arm's own $15 billion（約2.4兆円） target. Arm is identified as 'the structural beneficiary' due to its power-efficient architecture suited for agentic AI workloads.