SpaceX's $1.5–$2 trillion（約320兆円） IPO will leave 80% of active venture investors on the sidelines, signaling that mega-exits are now concentrated among a tiny elite.

What happened

SpaceX is preparing to go public at a $1.5 trillion（約240兆円） to $2 trillion（約320兆円） valuation, alongside confidential IPO filings from OpenAI and Anthropic. Of roughly 3,500 to 4,000 venture investors making at least two deals a year, only about 700 are invested in one of these three companies—meaning 80% of active VC are outside what may be one of the most significant liquidity events in history.

Why it matters

The venture industry has been starved for exits, but these three companies are anomalies. Since 2015, about $1.5 trillion（約240兆円） in venture value has reached public markets; SpaceX alone will do that on its own. Their appetite for capital—specifically compute power—is larger than what private markets can supply. Top-tier limited partners (the institutions that fund venture firms) will see dramatically better returns, and will increasingly want direct access to the next tier of AI companies, pushing capital toward a shrinking set of winners.

What to watch

Experts predict a multi-year shakeout rippling through the LP base, venture market, and even buyout market over the next five years. The takeaway for companies seeking a path to IPO is that growth compounds, not margins—a strong narrative and disciplined growth investment are what persuade investors, not financial engineering.