SpaceX's $1.5–$2 trillion（約320兆円） IPO will leave 80% of active venture investors on the sidelines, signaling that mega-exits are now concentrated among a tiny elite.

What happened: SpaceX is preparing to go public at a $1.5 trillion（約240兆円） to $2 trillion（約320兆円） valuation, alongside confidential IPO filings from OpenAI and Anthropic. Of roughly 3,500 to 4,000 venture investors making at least two deals a year, only about 700 are invested in one of these three companies—meaning 80% of active VC are outside what may be one of the most significant liquidity events in history.

Why it matters: The venture industry has been starved for exits, but these three companies are anomalies. Since 2015, about $1.5 trillion（約240兆円） in venture value has reached public markets; SpaceX alone will do that on its own. Their appetite for capital—specifically compute power—is larger than what private markets can supply. Top-tier limited partners (the institutions that fund venture firms) will see dramatically better returns, and will increasingly want direct access to the next tier of AI companies, pushing capital toward a shrinking set of winners.

What to watch: Experts predict a multi-year shakeout rippling through the LP base, venture market, and even buyout market over the next five years. The takeaway for companies seeking a path to IPO is that growth compounds, not margins—a strong narrative and disciplined growth investment are what persuade investors, not financial engineering.