AI capabilities framework: three levels of belief about future AI

The author presents a framework for understanding disagreements about artificial intelligence by organizing beliefs into three distinct positions, called "pills." The first, AI pilled, represents the most basic acknowledgment that artificial intelligence exists and can perform the tasks it currently performs. The second, AGI pilled, represents the belief that AI will become capable of doing much more than it presently can. The third, ASI pilled, represents the strongest position: that AI will eventually be able to perform approximately all tasks better than humans within our natural lifetimes. The author explicitly states they adopt the ASI position. They further note that a large percentage of employees at frontier AI labs—organizations developing cutting-edge AI systems—are also ASI pilled, and that the labs themselves operate from this perspective. The article then shifts to describing those who have not adopted any of these frameworks. The author observes unpilled people (those who have taken zero pills) are widespread, making up the majority of the population. Most people remain unaware of what frontier AI systems are capable of doing and lack knowledge of specific applications such as coding agents. Their exposure to AI has typically been limited to ChatGPT used for minor, nontechnical tasks, and these interactions have left them with outdated impressions of AI capabilities.