A top market strategist warned on CNBC that Anthropic's planned IPO, targeting a 40–50 times revenue multiple based on a 2028 sales projection of $190–200 billion, could be 'dangerous' if buyers overpay.
The broader risk: if Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI all list in 2026 at similar multiples, they will compete for the same capital pool currently supporting premium valuations at other AI companies like Palantir and Cloudflare, straining the market's ability to absorb new supply.
What happened
JonesTrading Chief Market Strategist Mike O'Rourke cautioned on CNBC that Anthropic's planned IPO, built on a 2028 sales projection of $190–200 billion and targeting a 40–50 times revenue multiple comparable to Palantir, Cloudflare, and SpaceX, hinges on what buyers will pay rather than company quality. O'Rourke warned: 'If you want to overpay, it's going to be dangerous.' He flagged the risk of oversupply in 2026, when SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all expected to list.
Why it matters
The concern centers on valuation and market absorption. Palantir currently trades at a 67.94 price-to-sales ratio despite strong Q2 2026 revenue growth of 93% year over year, while Cloudflare trades at a multiple that only premium AI-era companies might deserve. If all three AI companies arrive at 40–50x revenue, they will compete for the same pool of capital supporting those premium multiples elsewhere. Co-guest Lee Baker added a 'circular-financing' risk: heavy reliance on NVIDIA and cloud-compute partnerships means the system works 'for a while, but then at some point it just doesn't work anymore.' NVIDIA's Q1 FY2027 revenue was $82 billion (up 85% year over year), and its total supply commitments to AI companies now sit at $145 billion.
What to watch
Whether 2026 IPO supply from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will strain capital allocation in the AI trade. Palantir shares are down 2.09% year to date despite strong growth, while Cloudflare shares are up 60.17% year to date after Q2 revenue of $696.1 million (up 36% year over year). Prediction markets on Polymarket assign an 85.5% probability of a new NVIDIA all-time high by December 31, 2026.
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The article frames an IPO valuation debate that hinges on market timing and capital constraints, not company quality. O'Rourke explicitly praised Anthropic and Claude while questioning the price-to-sales multiple the market may assign at IPO. The worry is not whether Anthropic, SpaceX, or OpenAI will be profitable or valuable long-term—the strategist calls Anthropic 'incredible'—but whether three major AI IPOs arriving simultaneously in 2026 will demand more capital than the market currently allocates to premium AI multiples.
The article uses Palantir and Cloudflare as comps: Palantir trades at 67.94× sales despite Q2 2026 revenue growth of 93% year over year and a Rule of 40 score of 155 (a metric combining growth and profitability), yet shares are down 2.09% year to date. Cloudflare, at a 36% year-over-year revenue growth rate, has seen shares rise 60.17% year to date. These divergent returns despite strong fundamentals suggest that multiples may already reflect significant future growth, leaving little room for disappointment at higher entry prices.
Baker's 'circular financing' framing—describing the system as 'borrowing from Paul to pay Paul'—points to the role of NVIDIA at the center of the AI supply chain. NVIDIA's Q1 FY2027 revenue of $82 billion (up 85% year over year) and $145 billion in total supply commitments to AI companies mean that the companies expected to IPO are themselves NVIDIA customers. If capital for new AI IPOs becomes scarce, it may also pressure the demand for NVIDIA compute, creating a feedback loop.
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