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Oracle over C3.ai: Why the veteran wins in 2026

Oracle over C3.ai: Why the veteran wins in 2026

Key takeaway

  • Oracle is the recommended AI stock for 2026. Its sales grew 17% to $67.4 billion.

  • C3.ai's revenue dropped nearly 36% to $250.3 million.

  • Oracle also forecasts $90 billion in FY2027 sales.

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Oracle is presented as the better AI stock investment for 2026 compared with C3.ai, despite C3.ai having a slightly lower sales multiple. Oracle's FY 2026 revenue reached $67.4 billion, up 17.4%, while C3.ai's revenue fell 35.7% to $250.3 million.

  2. Why it matters

    Oracle's growth is backed by record remaining performance obligations of $638 billion at the end of Q4, pointing to more sales ahead. C3.ai faces risks from revenue concentration, a sales organization restructuring, and its CEO Thomas Siebel's return in June after stepping down due to health issues.

  3. What to watch

    Oracle forecasted fiscal 2027 sales to hit $90 billion, while C3.ai still has to prove it can bounce back to growing sales. C3.ai reported a net loss of $470.4 million and a negative free cash flow of $190.7 million in its latest fiscal year.

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Context & Analysis

The article's recommendation hinges on momentum. Oracle's 17% revenue growth in FY 2026, combined with a record $638 billion in remaining performance obligations, signals sustained demand for its AI infrastructure. C3.ai, in contrast, is in a rebuilding phase following a 35.7% revenue decline and the temporary departure of its CEO, Thomas Siebel. Siebel's return in June is presented as a potential catalyst, but the company remains unprofitable with a negative net margin of 187.9%.

It's worth noting the divergent valuation metrics: C3.ai carries a slightly lower P/S ratio (5.9x) than Oracle (6.4x), making it appear cheaper on that basis. However, Oracle's forward P/E of 18.5x — the only one available since C3.ai isn't profitable — and its forecast of $90 billion in FY2027 sales frame it as the safer, more predictable choice. The article also highlights Oracle's resilience through a diversified global customer base and partnerships with third-party cloud providers like Alphabet, whereas C3.ai depends on a limited set of high-value customers, including the U.S. Department of Energy. While both operate in the AI field, the author's core argument is that not all AI exposure is equal: one offers proven, scaling profitability, while the other is betting on a turnaround.

FAQ

What are the key financial differences between C3.ai and Oracle?
Oracle's FY 2026 revenue was $67.4 billion with net income of $17.1 billion, while C3.ai's revenue was $250.3 million with a net loss of $470.4 million. Oracle's forward P/E is 18.5x; C3.ai is not profitable.
What risks does each company face according to the article?
C3.ai faces risks from revenue concentration, sales restructuring, and regulatory issues like the EU AI Act. Oracle faces high infrastructure costs, competition from Amazon and Microsoft, and cybersecurity threats as it handles sensitive data.
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