Anthropic IPO could net Amazon $180B–$240B windfall

Anthropic, the maker of the Claude frontier large language model, is advancing toward an IPO with a potential October debut. The company was valued at $965 billion（約150兆円） during its last funding round in May, but secondary market transactions have recently placed it at around $1.2 trillion（約190兆円）—a significant step up in just a few months.

Amazon is positioned as one of the biggest beneficiaries of this milestone. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant has invested approximately $13 billion（約2.1兆円） in Anthropic and reportedly owns between 15% and 20% of the company. At the $1.2 trillion（約190兆円） valuation, this stake would be worth between $180 billion（約29兆円） and $240 billion（約38兆円）. In April, Amazon also committed to an additional $20 billion（約3.2兆円） investment contingent on Anthropic hitting certain commercial milestones. The scale of the return on Amazon's original investment underscores how dramatically the AI frontier has shifted valuations in just months.

However, the IPO's significance for Amazon extends far beyond the paper gain. As part of its latest investment round, Amazon secured more than $100 billion（約16兆円） in commitments from Anthropic spanning the next decade. These commitments include up to 5 gigawatts of capacity for training and running Claude, as well as for future iterations of Amazon's Trainium AI chips and Graviton CPUs. This arrangement locks in a major customer for AWS infrastructure services and ensures Amazon will benefit from Anthropic's continued aggressive spending on AI infrastructure. A well-capitalized Anthropic emerging from its IPO will have the financial firepower to fulfill these capacity needs, generating sustained revenue for Amazon's cloud division.

For Amazon shareholders, the Anthropic relationship forms part of a broader AI strategy. The company's cloud computing revenue has already begun to accelerate, supported by commitments from both Anthropic and OpenAI. Simultaneously, Amazon's custom chips—Trainium and Graviton—provide cost advantages in servicing these customers. At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 26 times 2027 analyst estimates, Amazon is characterized as attractively valued given the momentum in its core businesses, which also include investments in AI-driven operational efficiencies and robotics in its e-commerce segment.

Anthropic's IPO represents a validation moment for both the company and its major backer Amazon. The jump from a $965 billion（約150兆円） valuation in May to around $1.2 trillion（約190兆円） in recent secondary market transactions signals strong confidence in the AI frontier LLM market. For Amazon, the timing is particularly favorable: the company has positioned itself as a critical infrastructure partner to one of the most ambitious AI competitors, securing long-term capacity commitments worth over $100 billion（約16兆円） while maintaining a 15%–20% ownership stake.

Beyond the immediate wealth gain—a potential $180 billion（約29兆円） to $240 billion（約38兆円） stake value—the Anthropic investment addresses a structural need for AWS. As the article notes, Amazon's cloud computing revenue has begun accelerating, supported in part by commitments from both Anthropic and OpenAI. This suggests that the Anthropic relationship is not merely a venture bet but a strategic pillar of AWS's growth in the AI services market. The secured capacity commitments ensure a predictable, long-term revenue stream even as Anthropic scales its own infrastructure needs.