S&P 500 hits record high while 5.6% of components hit new 52-week lows—a signal that preceded 1929, 1973, and 1999 market crashes

On Friday, the S&P 500 reached a fresh record high while 5.6% of its components simultaneously hit new 52-week lows. According to Hedgeye Risk Management, this combination has occurred only three other times in history: July 1929, January 1973, and December 1999—each preceding major bear markets.

Big Tech dominance is concentrating gains: mega-cap technology stocks including Nvidia, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms now account for roughly 38% of the S&P 500's total weighting. Meanwhile, industrials, regional banks, consumer discretionary companies, and smaller healthcare names have lagged badly and some are already in bear markets individually.

Valuations are stretched by historical standards. The Shiller P/E ratio (CAPE ratio) now sits near its second-highest reading in history, with only November 1999 exceeding today's levels. Elevated CAPE readings have historically correlated with lower long-term returns and higher crash risk.