S&P Global Q3 Oct. 27: AI Usage vs. Renewal Slump

S&P Global's third-quarter report on Oct. 27 marks its first full quarter as a four-division company following the July 1 completion of the Mobility spin-off. The prior-year figures include Mobility, so the apparent year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS partly reflect the smaller base. Last quarter, revenue of $4.146B beat estimates, but adjusted EPS of $4.83 missed the $5.0027 consensus, and shares fell 3.52% that day. The company then raised its Ratings and Indices guidance and increased the 2026 buyback target to more than $7 billion. Shares have climbed 10.78% over the past month to $450.21 but remain 8.84% lower year to date. The key tension for the quarter is whether AI adoption, evidenced by growing Kensho API usage, can offset slower renewals in Market Intelligence, where larger customers are stretching out renewals while they negotiate AI use and IP protection. Management expects about $11 trillion of rated debt to need refinancing over the next 4.5 years, and it assumes $250 billion to $300 billion of hyperscaler issuance this year. Whether billed issuance stays on track for mid- to high single-digit full-year growth bears watching, especially as management warned that second-half comparisons get harder. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance stands at $17.50 to $17.75, and the stock has punished misses: its two recent EPS misses averaged a 6.61% decline on earnings day. If management can show that Kensho volume is bringing in new revenue and that renewal delays are easing, the post-spin story holds together. If Market Intelligence slows down again, Ratings will be carrying the story mostly on its own.