How much does ASML expect to sell in 2026?

ASML management expects 2026 sales of €43 billion to €45 billion and a 54% to 56% gross margin.

How much of Applied Materials' revenue came from China?

28% of Applied Materials' quarterly revenue came from China, leaving its own export-control exposure.

What were Applied Materials' latest quarterly results?

Applied Materials reported record fiscal third-quarter revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25%, with GAAP gross margin of 50.3%, operating margin of 33.7% and EPS up 43%.

AI Stocks & MarketsTop Companies' AI MovesAI Business & IndustryTop Companies AI2h agoSep 27, 2026, 06:30 JST

ASML at 31 times forward earnings vs Applied Materials near 27

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3 Key Points

What happened
ASML trades around 31 times forward earnings and Applied Materials near 27 times, the article notes. ASML reported €9.3 billion in second-quarter sales at a 54% gross margin and €2.9 billion net income, while Applied Materials posted record fiscal third-quarter revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25%.
Why it matters
The gap between the two multiples is modest, so investors are being asked how much extra they should pay for a supplier the article calls hard to replace; Applied Materials' wider spread across process steps and cheaper multiple are framed as compensation for that difference.
What to watch
ASML's 31 times multiple assumes AI-related fab spending stays strong enough to absorb expanded capacity, so the plan hinges on whether that demand holds; Applied Materials' exposure is the test, with 28% of quarterly revenue from China.

WHO IT HITSInvestors weighing semiconductor-equipment exposure — portfolio managers and analysts comparing ASML and Applied Materials — face a narrower valuation gap than the 'near-monopoly' framing might suggest, while the article points to China export-control exposure on both sides.

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Context & Analysis

The article frames the comparison partly through ownership and positioning data. Insider Monkey tracked 140 ASML holders in Q2, up from 133 in Q1, while Applied Materials slipped to 137 holders from 138. Fisher Asset Management increased its ASML stake about 3% to 4.74 million shares, while Coatue Management cut its Applied Materials position roughly 20%.

Applied Materials' short interest stood at 15.62 million shares on August 31, around 1.97% of float, with 2.3 days to cover. The article also notes both companies compete for the same investor dollar tied to semiconductor capital spending.

What the outcome hinges on is whether leading-edge fab spending keeps pace. ASML's 31 times forward multiple assumes it does. Applied Materials' broader portfolio gives it more ways to benefit when spending shifts, but it lacks a single irreplaceable product category. The article presents the cheaper multiple as partial compensation for that difference, though it does not resolve which side wins.

FAQ

How much does ASML expect to sell in 2026?: ASML management expects 2026 sales of €43 billion to €45 billion and a 54% to 56% gross margin.
How much of Applied Materials' revenue came from China?: 28% of Applied Materials' quarterly revenue came from China, leaving its own export-control exposure.
What were Applied Materials' latest quarterly results?: Applied Materials reported record fiscal third-quarter revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25%, with GAAP gross margin of 50.3%, operating margin of 33.7% and EPS up 43%.

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