TSMC CEO C.C. Wei says AI demand may beat 50% CAGR guide

TSMC sits upstream of most of the AI trade: Nvidia and Apple design chips, but the fabrication is outsourced to foundries, and TSMC is by far the largest, handling nearly all of the volume those two and many others require. That position means its earnings call doubles as a read on AI demand across the tech economy, not just one customer.

The setup going into this quarter was a guidance framework TSMC gave a while back: AI-related chip revenue growing at a 50% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029. When an analyst asked for an update, Wei declined to give a new number but said demand showed no sign of slowdown and the figure probably would be higher — effectively signaling the old target may have been conservative.

The stock's decline on the day, despite 51% revenue growth in New Taiwan Dollars and 69% profit growth, is read by the author as a reaction to the generic market outlook rather than the results. On valuation, the author argues that with 2027 estimates now in view, 18 times next year's earnings against 27 times trailing earnings implies roughly 50% upside if expectations are met and the multiple holds — a conditional calculation the author explicitly frames as math rather than a forecast.