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Nebius plans $40 billion buildout as Microsoft site slips

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Nebius plans $40 billion buildout as Microsoft site slips

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Nebius outlined $40 billion in planned 2027 spending, to be funded up to 85% by customer prepayments and asset-backed financing on investment-grade contracts such as Microsoft and Meta.

  2. Why it matters

    Its Microsoft contract is worth up to $19.4 billion, yet only just over half of that capacity is now planned by year-end, with the rest in Q2 2027, a risk to a model that leans on future data-center value.

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Context & Analysis

Nebius's plan hinges on a financing model in which the future value of its data centers pays for their construction. Customer prepayments and loans backed by customer contracts are meant to carry most of the load, and the company ended the quarter with $7.4 billion in cash. Chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky said new deals signed in Q3 came with prepayments that more than cover the cost of building the capacity behind them.

The weak link is third-party sites Nebius does not control. The Vineland, New Jersey, facility run by DataOne slipped after it wound down temporary generation faster than expected while switching to Bloom Energy fuel cells. Before that, the site drew a $1.1 million fine from New Jersey regulators over unpermitted gas generators, and it faces a noise-complaint lawsuit from nearby residents. Nebius says the data centers it builds itself are coming online on time or ahead of schedule and will supply most of its new capacity from 2027.

Microsoft's own stance matters here. Bloomberg reported that Microsoft is tightening oversight on third-party-run projects, including Nebius, IREN and Nscale, and debating whether to sign new agreements. Microsoft also noted in its quarterly report that capex came in lower than expected due to third-party delays. Nebius cut its 2026 revenue forecast by $200 million to $3 billion, citing delays at third-party sites like New Jersey, and shares ended the day down 17%.

FAQ
How does Nebius plan to pay for its buildout?
It expects total prepayments plus asset-backed financing of investment-grade contracts to cover up to 85% of the $40 to $45 billion 2027 capex spend. CFO Maria Del Dado Alonso Sanchez named Microsoft and Meta as contracts that can be financed this way.
Why is the New Jersey data center delayed?
Operator DataOne wound down temporary generation faster than expected as the site switches to Bloom Energy fuel cells, according to chief product and infrastructure officer Andrey Korolenko. New Jersey regulators had fined the facility $1.1 million over unpermitted gas generators.
What happens if Nebius misses the Microsoft deadlines?
Under Nebius's summary of the contract, Microsoft can terminate affected service after a grace period if dates are missed and no alternative capacity is offered. The contract also includes financial penalties for late delivery.
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