UBS: 30% of 2028 data-center capacity at risk; NVIDIA falls 21.4%

The 30% figure from UBS is an estimate of proposed capacity additions, not of capital spending companies have already committed. That distinction runs through the whole story. NVIDIA's supply obligations rose to $279.00 billion, mostly tied to memory purchases, and its guarantee obligations to AI cloud and data-center partners are capped at $108.5 billion — dollars that are committed. The capacity UBS flagged is still proposed. Days sales outstanding rose to 60 days from 45 days because of extended payment terms, and management expects margins to bottom in the 71% to 72% range in the fourth quarter as memory prices climb.

The market reaction split along that line. Chip and equipment names took the hit, while data-center landlords held up much better. Equinix said it lists projects only after permitting hurdles are cleared and power is largely secured, and Digital Realty has 1.5 gigawatts under construction with 63% pre-leased. Investors appear to be rewarding companies that already own permitted, powered sites.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang argues the computing platform is transferable and can be reassigned to other customers. That argument helps only if there are finished buildings with power ready to receive the hardware, which is why the delivery chain — not demand — is now the focus. Analysts remain split: for the fiscal year ending January 2028, revenue estimates range from $506.483 billion to $778.471 billion.