McKinsey: 770,000 a year must switch jobs; 11 million affected by 2035

McKinsey's research argues the U.S. labor market will grow overall but reshape itself, forcing millions into unfamiliar roles. The scale is unusual: an average of 770,000 workers a year crossing occupational lines is 3.6 times the historical rate, and unlike the brief surge after COVID-19, this transition will last at least a decade. The study walks through specific pathways to show why some moves are easier than others. An administrative assistant already performs tasks that make up about 58 percent of a project manager's work, but many postings require a bachelor's degree and a professional certification, demanding years and thousands of dollars. A dishwasher moving to home health aide has only about 20 percent of the required skills and would need a month of instruction to be certified, while 92 percent of healthcare support jobs sit in the bottom two wage quintiles. A packager moving to production fabrication has about 52 percent of skills transfer and no credential requirement, but must learn mechanical assembly and advanced quality control. Across all growing jobs, credentials are the most common hurdle, required in 85 percent of them. The research suggests employers can drop degree screens no law requires, use practical assessments, and build apprenticeships, while states can prune licensing rules and make credentials modular. Workers themselves face limits: they cannot shorten a licensing timeline or self-fund months without pay. The conclusion is that easier pathways would benefit companies and workers alike.