TSM earnings signal AI boom through 2030; analyst eyes Nvidia, Broadcom

TSMC's second-quarter results have reignited conviction in the multi-year semiconductor cycle tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure. The 36% revenue growth and 77% earnings per share growth underscore the company's pricing power and operational efficiency gains as it captures the bulk of advanced chip production for AI workloads. Critically, the company's willingness to invest another $100 billion（約16兆円） in Arizona capacity—a massive commitment—signals that management expects demand to remain strong well into the next decade. CEO C.C. Wei's explicit guidance that chip demand will persist through 2029 or 2030 effectively rules out an imminent slowdown in the AI buildout, a concern that had weighed on valuations earlier in the year.

This outlook has immediate implications for Nvidia and Broadcom. Nvidia's forecast for 82% revenue growth for the remainder of the fiscal year and 42% growth next year is underpinned by TSMC's continued capacity and reliability as a supplier. Broadcom, meanwhile, is undergoing a more dramatic transformation: its custom AI chip business is expected to generate $100 billion（約16兆円） in revenue next year, up from $10.8 billion（約1.7兆円） last quarter—a trajectory that positions the company as a direct beneficiary of intensifying AI chip demand. Despite recent sell-offs across all three names, the constellation of strong guidance, massive capital investment, and forward earnings estimates suggests the market has not fully priced in the length and breadth of the AI cycle.