SanDisk stock surged 4,800% as AI data centers scramble for memory chips, but Wall Street warns the boom may not last.

What happened: SanDisk, spun off from Western Digital in early 2025, has shifted toward enterprise storage for artificial intelligence. The stock has attracted investor capital as demand for NAND flash memory (long-term storage for AI training data) created a severe supply shortage. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, SanDisk's sales rose 251% to $5.9 billion（約9400億円）, and the company reported adjusted earnings of $23.41 per diluted share, compared with a loss of $0.30 per diluted share in the same period last year.

Why it matters: Wall Street is divided on whether this boom will last. A median analyst target of $1,702 per share implies 22% downside from the current $2,185 price, because memory chips are largely interchangeable commodities with no unique competitive advantage. Analysts expect the current cycle to collapse in 2029. Although SanDisk has announced five multiyear partnerships to improve business predictability, bears argue the memory chip industry has a history of boom-and-bust cycles—demand spiked during the pandemic then collapsed in 2022, and the same pattern may repeat.

What to watch: Of 28 analysts covering SanDisk, most expect the stock to fall. William Kerwin at Morningstar and Srini Pajjuri at RBC Capital have set targets at $1,000 per share, which implies 54% downside. Wall Street consensus expects SanDisk's adjusted earnings to grow at 25% annually through fiscal 2029, making the current valuation of 70 times earnings appear expensive by historical standards.