Microsoft's Azure cloud business maintained 40% year-over-year growth through its latest quarter, and the company's AI business surpassed a $37 billion（約5.9兆円） annual revenue run rate, up 123%. At current valuation (roughly 20 times forward earnings), the stock looks reasonably priced for a decade-long hold, particularly because Microsoft's entrenched position in enterprise software means customers already pay the company and are now adopting AI services through the same relationship—a lower-risk bet than chipmakers exposed to demand swings.
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Microsoft's Azure cloud business grew 40% year over year in its fiscal third quarter (ended March 31, 2026), matching growth rates from the prior two quarters. The company's AI business surpassed an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion（約5.9兆円）, up 123% year over year, while commercial remaining performance obligations (contracted work not yet recognized as revenue) roughly doubled to $627 billion（約100兆円）.
Why it matters
Microsoft's entrenchment in enterprise software—Office, Windows, Teams, developer and security tools—means businesses already depend on the company and are now adopting its AI services through the same vendor relationship. That customer stickiness, combined with heavy cash generation (fiscal Q3 net income climbed 23% to $31.8 billion（約5.1兆円）), makes Microsoft a lower-risk way to own the AI trend compared to chipmakers exposed to volatile demand swings.
What to watch
The company plans to invest about $190 billion（約30兆円） in capital expenditures in calendar year 2026, including about $25 billion（約4兆円） from higher component pricing. That massive spending, which will later hit profits as depreciation, is the main reason the stock trades about 30% below its 52-week high of $555.45—investors want proof the build-out will justify its cost.
Microsoft's appeal as a decade-long holding rests on two reinforcing facts the article presents. First, the company's installed base in enterprise software—Office, Windows, Teams, and surrounding tools—creates customer entrenchment; switching away is expensive and disruptive, so customers rarely do it. Second, that same customer base is now adopting AI services, and Microsoft is often the first vendor they try because it is the vendor they already pay. The result is that Azure cloud growth has held steady at about 40% for three straight quarters, and commercial remaining performance obligations roughly doubled year over year to $627 billion（約100兆円）, signaling that enterprise AI adoption is far from saturation.
The stock's 30% discount from its 52-week high exists primarily because of the planned $190 billion（約30兆円） capital expenditure in 2026. That spending will eventually hit profit margins as depreciation, creating a near-term earnings headwind that investors want to scrutinize. However, the article argues this is precisely why valuation has become reasonable: at roughly 20 times forward earnings, Microsoft trades at a discount to Nvidia (23 times forward earnings) despite lower earnings volatility. For a buyer planning to hold for a decade, the logic is that customer relationships and infrastructure durability matter more than exposure to near-term chip-demand cycles. The company's cash generation—net income of $31.8 billion（約5.1兆円） in fiscal Q3, up 23% year over year—also means it can fund the AI buildout while still paying a dividend, a point the article highlights as a structural advantage.
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