AI capex projected to exceed $1 trillion（約160兆円） by 2027

Raymond James Investment Management chief market strategist Matt Orton has issued a forecast that artificial intelligence capital expenditure will top $1 trillion（約160兆円） by 2027. According to Orton, this surge will be driven by two main factors: strong cloud monetization—indicating that AI services are generating meaningful revenue—and capacity constraints that force companies to continue investing in infrastructure.

Orton also warned of a potential downside risk: chip stocks could face a 15% to 20% sell-off if Big Tech fails to raise spending guidance. This warning highlights the tight relationship between semiconductor valuations and perceived AI infrastructure investment trends. Large technology companies' forward guidance on capex has become a key signal for the entire chip sector, making confidence in sustained AI spending essential to maintaining current equity valuations.

Matt Orton's $1 trillion（約160兆円） projection reflects a belief that artificial intelligence infrastructure has become central to Big Tech's competitive strategy and revenue models. The twin drivers he identifies—strong cloud monetization and capacity constraints—suggest that AI services are already generating returns sufficient to justify massive ongoing investment, while simultaneous capacity shortages create urgency to expand further. The strategist's warning about a potential 15% to 20% chip stock sell-off if guidance disappoints underscores how closely markets have tied semiconductor valuations to assumed AI spending momentum. This linkage means that any slowdown in Big Tech's capex confidence could quickly repriced the chip sector downward.

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