SpaceX's rapid entry into the Nasdaq-100 index via a new fast-track rule has raised questions about whether AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic could follow suit after their IPOs. Both companies are confidentially filing to go public at massive valuations ($1 trillion（約160兆円） for OpenAI, $965 billion（約150兆円） for Anthropic), potentially making them eligible for quick Nasdaq index inclusion if they meet liquidity and size thresholds. However, inclusion in the broader S&P 500 would remain difficult, since S&P still requires 12 months of trading history and positive profitability—hurdles both companies currently face.
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SpaceX entered the Nasdaq-100 index on its seventh trading day after going public, thanks to Nasdaq's new fast-entry rule for the largest new listings. OpenAI has filed confidentially for an IPO targeting a valuation close to $1 trillion（約160兆円）, while Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO paperwork after raising $65 billion（約10兆円） in May 2026 at a $965 billion（約150兆円） valuation.
Why it matters
Both companies could follow SpaceX's path into Nasdaq-linked indexes if they list on Nasdaq and meet eligibility rules, giving index investors direct exposure to frontier AI model companies rather than just the infrastructure companies powering them. However, S&P 500 inclusion remains harder—the index still requires 12 months of trading history and a profitability test, which OpenAI (not expected profitable until 2030) and Anthropic (facing heavy computing costs) may struggle to meet quickly.
What to watch
OpenAI already has more than 900 million weekly ChatGPT users, more than 50 million paying consumers, and about $2 billion（約3200億円） in monthly revenue (as of March 2026). The bigger risk for investors is not just whether these companies enter indexes, but whether their valuations can be justified after the initial wave of passive buying, and how regulation—including OpenAI's reported consideration of giving a 5% stake to the U.S. government—affects IPO timing and post-listing volatility.
SpaceX's entry into the Nasdaq-100 on its seventh trading day represents a meaningful shift in how mega-IPOs can access passive index flows. The updated Nasdaq-100 methodology allows the largest new listings to be fast-tracked if they rank among the top 40 companies by market value, a threshold that OpenAI and Anthropic could plausibly cross given their anticipated valuations. J.P. Morgan estimates SpaceX's move created about $4.3 billion（約6900億円） in passive buying, suggesting that a successful OpenAI or Anthropic listing could unlock similar index-driven capital flows.
However, the path diverges sharply when it comes to broader market indexes. While both companies might enter Nasdaq-linked products or total market indexes quickly after going public, S&P 500 inclusion—the most prominent benchmark for U.S. large-cap stocks—remains a longer and more uncertain journey. S&P's decision to maintain strict eligibility rules, including a 12-month trading history requirement and a profitability screen, creates a material headwind for companies like OpenAI (not expected to reach profitability until 2030) and Anthropic (burdened by heavy computing infrastructure costs). The body notes that S&P did create a fast-track path for some broader indexes like the S&P Total Market Index, but the flagship S&P 500 remains closed to newly public firms on an abbreviated timeline.
Regulatory considerations add another layer of complexity. OpenAI's reported consideration of a government stake and Anthropic's experience with foreign-access restrictions suggest that political and national-security factors may influence IPO timing and valuation, independent of market dynamics. For investors, the takeaway is that index inclusion should not be conflated with business quality or valuation safety—index funds buy because of rules, not because a company is risk-free. The real question is whether OpenAI and Anthropic can sustain their valuations and justify their computing-cost profiles once the initial wave of passive index buying subsides.
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