Alphabet drops 4% on EU data order, Gemini delay despite Buffett stake

Alphabet faces a rare convergence of pressures—regulatory, competitive, and financial—that has shaken investor confidence even as Warren Buffett made a public bet on the company. The EU's Digital Markets Act order, delivered July 16, mandates that Google expose both Search data and Android system features to competitors including OpenAI, a shift that strikes at the heart of Google's moat in search and mobile ecosystems. Although the compliance deadline is still 12–18 months away, the ruling signals that regulators are willing to act and may do so again; a second EU fine in a related Digital Markets Act probe could arrive within days, and US antitrust litigation over Google's search dominance is also drawing fresh institutional attention.

Simultaneously, Alphabet is burning capital at an unprecedented pace—$180 billion（約29兆円） to $190 billion（約30兆円） in capital spending this year—while its signature next-generation AI model, Gemini 3.5 Pro, reportedly faces delays and engineering challenges. The buildout has forced the company to halt share buybacks and raise $80 billion（約13兆円） in equity (anchored by Berkshire), yet the connection between that spending and revenue growth remains unproven. Google Cloud did grow 63% last quarter to nearly $20 billion（約3.2兆円）, which Wall Street will scrutinize for proof that AI investment is monetizing, but that metric alone may not satisfy skeptics worried that Alphabet is chasing near-term AI headlines at the expense of disciplined returns.

Buffett's endorsement—and his caution—encapsulates the market's ambivalence. He confirmed Berkshire built a $31 billion（約5兆円） position, but stopped short of ranking Alphabet among his four or five favorite holdings, and he explicitly echoed market concerns about the "real money" being spent on AI. His measured stance suggests that even a long-term value investor sees Alphabet as a bet on execution under pressure, not a straightforward endorsement of the company's strategic direction.