Micron Stock Down 21% From High, Still Up 680% in a Year

Micron's current financials look spectacular: record revenue, triple-digit growth in all four business segments, and earnings per share up 1,368% to $24.67. The company benefits from an unprecedented ability to dictate prices because AI memory demand is through the roof while supply remains tight.

The bear case rests on the idea that this imbalance will not last. Nvidia projects the five largest hyperscale companies will spend nearly $800 billion on AI data center infrastructure in 2026, potentially topping $1.3 trillion in 2027. For that spending to make economic sense, companies must earn returns — but rising costs are already forcing some to cap AI usage or route tasks to cheaper models.

The author's caution stems from a belief that Wall Street knows earnings will eventually decline. Every memory company is racing to build more manufacturing capacity, and higher supply levels in the next few years would erode Micron's pricing power. If earnings fall, the stock's current discount to the broader market could prove illusory.