SpaceX $2T IPO sparks hunt for next Anthropic, OpenAI mega-debuts

SpaceX's June 2026 public debut at a $1.77 trillion（約280兆円） valuation has crystallized investor anxiety about missing the next generational wealth creation event. That anxiety is grounded in a real historical precedent: a $10,000 investment in Nvidia a decade ago would be worth roughly $1.8 million（約2.9億円） today. The IPO's trading volume—more than 500 million shares, the second-heaviest first-day Nasdaq IPO volume ever—reflects how intensely retail and institutional investors are chasing what the market calls the "new Magnificent Three": SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.

However, market history and investment professionals offer a corrective. The typical IPO declines about 26% within three years of its first-day close, a reminder that debut momentum often reverses. More tellingly, the companies that deliver the longest returns are not always the ones that soar on day one. Life-science IPOs like Abgenix and Enzo Biochem surged 2,071% and 2,445% from their first-day closes respectively, only to cool later, while patient investors in Moderna—which did not have a stellar debut—saw the fifth-highest return among the 1,020 life-science IPOs from 1980 to 2024. This pattern suggests that the fear of missing day-one access is disproportionate to the actual opportunity cost, and that waiting for post-hype volatility often yields better entry points.

Investment professionals emphasize three filters. The first is to avoid the temptation of day-one buying, when easier retail access signals that privileged early holders have already taken their positions. The second is to verify that companies have genuine revenue and paying customers—a lesson learned from the dotcom era—rather than betting on headline narratives. Anthropic and OpenAI both demonstrate material revenue, with Anthropic's $47+ billion run rate and OpenAI's $25+ billion by early 2026. The third is to read the prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, a free public document that reveals governance structures, growth assumptions, and execution plans that headlines omit entirely.