SpaceX $2T IPO sparks hunt for next Anthropic, OpenAI mega-debuts

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX became a public company at a $1.77 trillion（約280兆円） valuation, completing one of the most anticipated debuts in market history. The company priced its shares at $135 per share; the stock opened at $150 and closed its first day at $160.95, a 19% surge. Trading volume exceeded 500 million shares—the second-heaviest first-day IPO volume in Nasdaq history, surpassed only by Facebook's 580 million shares in 2012. SpaceX raised gross proceeds of $85.7 billion（約14兆円） in the IPO, after having grown from a startup into a $2 trillion（約320兆円） company entirely as a private enterprise over more than two decades. At IPO pricing, the company traded at roughly 95 times its trailing annual sales, based on $18.7 billion（約3兆円） in 2025 revenue.

The SpaceX debut has ignited investor anxiety about missing the next transformational technology investment. The market has labeled SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI the "new Magnificent Three," and investor demand is driven by regret over missing early Nvidia exposure—a $10,000 Nvidia investment a decade ago would be worth roughly $1.8 million（約2.9億円） today. When SpaceX went public, financial advisor Jeff Barnett recounts that a client who had dismissed the stock on valuation and governance grounds nonetheless asked him to purchase 10 shares, comparing the decision to buying a lottery ticket when the jackpot reaches $1 billion（約1600億円）.

However, market historians and investment professionals caution against the urgency of day-one purchasing. The typical median IPO declines about 26% within three years of its first-day closing price. History shows that initial first-day winners are not always the companies that compound long-term returns. Among biotechnology IPOs, Abgenix and Enzo Biochem both had stellar debuts, rising 2,071% and 2,445% from their first-day closes respectively, according to data from IPO expert Jay Ritter. Yet these early winners cooled, while patient investors in Moderna—which did not have a standout debut—realized the fifth-highest return among all 1,020 life-science IPOs from 1980 to 2024.

Investment professionals recommend three rules for evaluating mega-IPOs. First, avoid buying on day one. SpaceX early investors had held 12.5 billion shares at an average cost of $6.48; by the time retail investors could buy at $135 or higher, those privileged holders were already cashing in. Avery Marquez, director of investment strategies at Renaissance Capital, notes that newly public stocks remain "unseasoned" for about three years, a period of high volatility and transformation. Spikes often reverse: SpaceX spiked to $225 within days of the IPO, then fell back to $160, creating opportunities for those who did not chase the opening.

Second, follow the revenue. Matt Witheiler, a portfolio manager at Wellington Management who invests in private companies pre-IPO, emphasizes that real revenue from paying customers is the most meaningful signal of durable value. By early 2026, OpenAI's annualized run rate had crossed $25 billion（約4兆円）. By May 2026, Anthropic's had reached roughly $47 billion（約7.5兆円）, with public guidance of more than $50 billion（約8兆円）. This stands in sharp contrast to the dotcom era, when investors bought companies that looked cheap on an "eyeball basis" but had no sales underneath. "You show me the numbers, and it's obviously real or not," Witheiler says. Investors must also assess whether the addressable market is "absolutely unbounded"—in SpaceX's case, orbital data centers could potentially rival the largest data centers ever built.

Third, read the prospectus. Every company files an S-1 disclosure document with the Securities and Exchange Commission before going public; it is free and easily accessible to retail investors. Yet Marquez observes that many retail investors read only the headlines. The SpaceX prospectus reveals details the headlines do not. While headlines emphasize Elon Musk's goal to build a human colony on Mars with 1 million inhabitants, the prospectus discloses that SpaceX does not believe this will happen and has not set aside any of the hypothetical $1 trillion（約160兆円） return associated with it—yet is issuing him shares underlying his pay package regardless. The prospectus also shows that control of SpaceX resides with Musk through billions of Class B super-voting shares that convert to Class A only if he sells. Finally, portfolio manager Bryan Wong at Osterweis Capital Management recommends looking for picks-and-shovels companies—the infrastructure and tooling providers (many already public) that serve the broader AI ecosystem. This approach offers a much wider field of potential winners than betting on a single dominant company like the next Nvidia.

SpaceX's June 2026 public debut at a $1.77 trillion（約280兆円） valuation has crystallized investor anxiety about missing the next generational wealth creation event. That anxiety is grounded in a real historical precedent: a $10,000 investment in Nvidia a decade ago would be worth roughly $1.8 million（約2.9億円） today. The IPO's trading volume—more than 500 million shares, the second-heaviest first-day Nasdaq IPO volume ever—reflects how intensely retail and institutional investors are chasing what the market calls the "new Magnificent Three": SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.

However, market history and investment professionals offer a corrective. The typical IPO declines about 26% within three years of its first-day close, a reminder that debut momentum often reverses. More tellingly, the companies that deliver the longest returns are not always the ones that soar on day one. Life-science IPOs like Abgenix and Enzo Biochem surged 2,071% and 2,445% from their first-day closes respectively, only to cool later, while patient investors in Moderna—which did not have a stellar debut—saw the fifth-highest return among the 1,020 life-science IPOs from 1980 to 2024. This pattern suggests that the fear of missing day-one access is disproportionate to the actual opportunity cost, and that waiting for post-hype volatility often yields better entry points.

Investment professionals emphasize three filters. The first is to avoid the temptation of day-one buying, when easier retail access signals that privileged early holders have already taken their positions. The second is to verify that companies have genuine revenue and paying customers—a lesson learned from the dotcom era—rather than betting on headline narratives. Anthropic and OpenAI both demonstrate material revenue, with Anthropic's $47+ billion run rate and OpenAI's $25+ billion by early 2026. The third is to read the prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, a free public document that reveals governance structures, growth assumptions, and execution plans that headlines omit entirely.