UBS: Planet Fitness can manage Meta Muse churn risk

The worry UBS is addressing is recent: Meta launched Muse last month, and Planet Fitness sentiment "took a worse turn" after that launch, on fears that agentic AI could drive significant churn in the medium term. UBS's answer leans on friction that automated agents cannot easily clear — in-app verifications, biometric confirmations, restrictions on automated access and bot traffic — plus a requirement that members directly confirm before an agent cancels.

The note also points to economics working in Planet Fitness's favor, since rejoining a gym is costly, which could discourage members from letting an agent cancel automatically. UBS adds that Planet Fitness could use the same AI technology for personalized outreach, offering membership freezes or downgrades before a cancellation happens.

Underneath the AI debate, UBS describes a business that is improving: stronger membership growth in September and continued strength in early October, churn stable in the 3.5%-3.8% range, and a likely billing change to bill members the same day rather than 30 days later, which the analysts say could further reduce churn. On that basis, UBS suggests a Black Card pricing hike could arrive sooner than the market believes, since Black Card members typically have higher utilization. The competitive picture is not settled, though: last month Deutsche Bank said Planet Fitness's growth and market share in the high volume, low price fitness space could take a hit in the coming years, amid a projected rise in competition from new entrants and smaller, well-established companies.