Nvidia halves OpenAI guarantee to $120B as Anthropic's revenue surge defies AI bubble fears

Nvidia's decision to halve its guarantee reflects mounting investor scrutiny of mega-scale AI infrastructure spending, even as the company and its partners pursue unprecedented data center buildouts. The original $250 billion commitment represented an extraordinary concentration of risk on a single project; the reduction to just under $120 billion suggests that Wall Street is demanding more conservative exposure despite the obvious strategic importance of securing capacity for OpenAI. The guarantee covers only the initial phase, with OpenAI and Nvidia pursuing separate financing for the full scope—a structure that may indicate risk-sharing across multiple parties rather than a single actor bearing the full downside.

Anthropric's financial trajectory, by contrast, suggests the investment community's caution is not uniform across all AI bets. A 14x year-over-year revenue jump and projections of $190 billion–$200 billion in 2028 revenue indicate that proprietary AI services are capturing real, durable demand. That growth rate—more than 10x annually in each of the three years leading up to early 2026—outpaces typical venture-scale software growth and points to a market expanding faster than skeptics anticipated. The slight flattening in token demand among Ramp's business customers is a note of caution, but it has not yet translated into a revenue deceleration in the company's public filings.