Oracle hits 52-week low as S&P cuts credit rating over $90B–95B AI spending

Oracle faces a genuine liquidity squeeze driven by its decision to front-load massive capital expenditures for AI infrastructure. The company spent $55.7 billion（約8.9兆円） on capex in fiscal 2026 against $32 billion（約5.1兆円） in operating cash flow, and S&P's projection of $90–95 billion spending in fiscal 2027 signals that the company is in the heaviest phase of its build-out. The credit downgrade reflects real financial strain: Oracle carries nearly $130 billion（約21兆円） in borrowings and now plans a $20 billion（約3.2兆円） equity issuance, which will dilute existing shareholders. The single-customer concentration risk is particularly sharp—with roughly half of the $638 billion（約100兆円） backlog tied to OpenAI, Oracle's ability to convert those contracts into sustainable cash flow depends partly on factors outside its control, including OpenAI's own funding stability and profitability trajectory.

Yet the stock's valuation—trading at roughly 16 times guided adjusted earnings for fiscal 2027—may be pricing in outcomes more pessimistic than the current facts support. Oracle's demand fundamentals remain robust: cloud infrastructure revenue accelerated to 21% growth in fiscal Q4, and the backlog expanded 363% year-over-year to $638 billion（約100兆円）. The company is guiding for 34% revenue growth in fiscal 2027, a pace typically reserved for high-growth companies, not legacy software peers. If that backlog converts anywhere close to schedule and the heaviest capex phase approaches completion, earnings growth could reaccelerate once the balance-sheet strain eases. The critical near-term indicators will be whether free cash flow deterioration slows ahead of schedule and whether OpenAI's funding commitments continue to materialize quarter after quarter.