Slow AI learning may delay AGI until 2050

This analysis offers a sobering view of AI progress, suggesting that even if AGI arrives by 2028–2032, its slow learning rate may prevent it from quickly inventing ASI. The author argues that early AGIs won't have a significant edge over humans in this race, so substantive new inventions may not appear until 2040–2050. The catalyst for acceleration is an 'industrial explosion'—presumably a massive automation of physical labor—that could make AI learning loops 1000x faster. This timeline hinges on the assumption that the compute buildout slowdown in 2032+ doesn't derail progress, and that a software-only singularity remains possible in the meantime.