Broadcom's $102 billion Anthropic bet: chips plus loans

Broadcom had spent the past year paying down the debt it took on with the VMware deal, which had pushed total debt from around $40 billion in fiscal 2021–2023 to $68.9 billion in fiscal 2024 and $66.5 billion in fiscal 2025. The Anthropic financing pushes sharply the other way. The article frames the bet against analysts' revenue estimates: Broadcom's revenue climbed from $35.8 billion in fiscal 2023 to $63.9 billion in fiscal 2025, and 40 to 49 analysts expect $106 billion in fiscal 2026, $174 billion in fiscal 2027, and $272 billion in fiscal 2028.

The argument that the loan is safe rests on two things: the chips themselves secure the financing, and a public Anthropic would have cash to repay. The article notes the tension — AI chips are most valuable when a customer needs lots of computing power, so if Anthropic's growth slows enough to make repayment difficult, the collateral's value could drop at the same time while Broadcom also faces weaker chip orders. That leaves less protection exactly when the financing becomes a problem.

The article's author judges the bet makes sense given the revenue trajectory, while cautioning that owning Broadcom now means taking Anthropic exposure from both sides of the relationship. How that resolves may hinge on whether Anthropic's reported IPO, possibly as early as mid-November, clarifies its financial position and its ability to support this spending on its own.