Amazon likely to raise 2026 capex guidance, CEO Jassy signals on July 30

Amazon will announce its second-quarter 2026 earnings results after the market closes on Thursday, July 30, with CEO Andy Jassy and management holding a live conference call with Wall Street analysts. The central question heading into the call is whether Jassy will raise the company's full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance above its current $200 billion（約32兆円） floor.

Several signals suggest a raise is likely. Alphabet, Amazon's peer among the Magnificent Seven hyperscalers, recently reported its Q2 2026 earnings and increased its full-year capex guidance from $180–190 billion to $195–205 billion. Alphabet's CFO Anat Ashkenazi attributed the increase to "acceleration in the delivery of capacity to meet growing demand." Notably, Alphabet raised capex guidance in Q1 as well, while Amazon held steady—a divergence that may not persist. Alphabet's cloud business reported 82% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2, though the stock fell on the capex hike. Amazon's stock also fell, signaling that investors are bracing for similar news.

Jassy has previously expressed confidence in the capex spending strategy. During the Q1 earnings call, he stated: "We continue to be confident in the long-term capex investments we are making" and noted that "much of which will be installed in future years, we have high confidence this will be monetized well, as we already have customer commitments for a substantial portion of it." He emphasized that the company would not hesitate to increase near-term capex if AWS continues to show rapid growth. He also explained that AWS capex—spent on land, power, buildings, chips, servers, and networking gear—typically converts to revenue 6–24 months after deployment.

One complication is rising memory prices. Companies like Amazon may need to spend more on NAND flash memory and DRAM, both critical for feeding data to the GPUs powering data centers. Additionally, the broader industry faces a headwind: the Magnificent Seven are expected to spend over $700 billion（約110兆円） combined on capex in 2026, and investors worry this scale of investment will not yield sufficiently strong returns. The market is now prepared for Amazon to announce a capex increase, meaning a guidance raise may already be partially reflected in the stock price. If Amazon maintains its $200 billion（約32兆円） guidance, the stock may react favorably as investors' expectations are tempered. But if the guidance increases meaningfully, shares could face pressure. The real question for investors, according to the article's analysis, is not the near-term capex numbers themselves, but whether the AI demand driving these investments is durable and growing or whether the AI story is already in later innings.

Amazon's earnings report on July 30 comes at a critical moment for the hyperscaler industry. Alphabet has already signaled the capex arms race by raising its full-year 2026 guidance to $195–205 billion, putting it at or above Amazon's current $200 billion（約32兆円） guidance. This move reflects the industry-wide pressure to build out AI infrastructure rapidly, driven by what companies describe as staggering demand. Jassy has previously emphasized that Amazon is not gambling on AI but responding to customer demand, noting that AWS already has customer commitments for a substantial portion of its 2026 capex and expects high confidence in monetization and returns on invested capital. However, investors are increasingly nervous about the aggregate spend: the Magnificent Seven are expected to deploy over $700 billion（約110兆円） on capex in 2026 alone, raising questions about whether returns will justify the outlay. Recent spikes in memory prices add another cost pressure, as companies must spend more on NAND flash and DRAM chips to feed GPUs in data centers. The market has already braced for Amazon to announce a capex increase, meaning a guidance hike may be priced in—but a meaningfully larger raise could still trigger stock pressure, while maintaining current guidance could be seen as a relative positive.

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