Qualcomm tops Marvell on AI upside, boosted by 25 million share warrant deal with Amazon

Qualcomm spent most of its corporate life selling chips for phones, but in June it laid out a full data center roadmap built around its new Dragonfly platform, including a server CPU called Dragonfly C1000 and an AI accelerator called AI300. Meta has already signed a multi-generation agreement to use Qualcomm CPUs for its next wave of servers, with production slated to start in the second half of 2028 — a big shift from Qualcomm's past reliance on handset makers. The more important move, in the author's view, is the partnership with Amazon: the two announced a multi-generation collaboration to co-develop custom chips for AWS data centers, focused on running AI services more cheaply and efficiently, as well as high-speed optical links. Qualcomm also issued warrants that allow an Amazon entity to buy up to 25 million shares over time, tied to as much as $60 billion in potential chip purchases, which aligns Qualcomm's future with Amazon's AI build-out.

Marvell, by contrast, is already a major player in the plumbing of AI data centers, selling connectivity chips, optical links, and custom silicon. At Citi's 2026 Global TMT Conference, management described a business where data center revenue has climbed from about $2.2 billion in 2023 to a projected $15 billion to $16 billion next year, and raised its combined revenue outlook for fiscal 2027 and 2028 to $30 billion. Marvell has also been showcasing new 2-nanometer optical technology. But the author argues this stock has already had its run: its price has jumped nearly 250% in the last calendar year, and much of its future growth is tied to strong AI demand and winning major customer designs.

The crux of the comparison, then, is not whether both companies have real AI businesses — they do — but how much of that is already reflected in their share prices. Qualcomm's case rests on execution: if it delivers on its multi-year deals with Meta and Amazon and ties together data center, device, phone chip, and edge silicon, the gap between its "old phone chip" label and its actual 2026 business could surprise investors. Whether that gap narrows, and how much of Marvell's future growth materializes, are the things that will determine which stock ultimately proves the better bet.