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New research group LIMBO launches mathematical framework for anthropic reasoning and existential risk analysis, claiming validated predictions in financial markets.

LessWrong AIApr 1, 20261 min read
New research group LIMBO launches mathematical framework for anthropic reasoning and existential risk analysis, claiming validated predictions in financial markets.

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3 Key Points

  1. LIMBO (Laboratory for Importance-sampled Measure and Bayesian Observation) founded in October 2024, focusing on observer existence mechanisms in cosmological contexts

  2. Developed mathematical framework for rare-event estimation and anthropic reasoning with claimed empirical validation

  3. Demonstrates track record of successful predictions in financial and prediction markets using their framework

  4. Active in policy advocacy including semiconductor supply chain and foreign policy research

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