SpaceX at $100 implies zero AI value, Morgan Stanley says—but stock target is $300

SpaceX completed a record $86 billion（約14兆円） public offering in mid-June, initially generating strong investor demand that sent shares up nearly 50% in the first three trading sessions. However, momentum has reversed significantly; by Monday, shares were trading near $110, approaching levels where the company's artificial intelligence operations would be valued at zero or negative by the market. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, writing to clients on Friday, highlighted this disconnect as an opportunity. He noted that many investors expect the stock to fall further to $100 per share when a lockup on the first batch of shares expires next month, allowing insiders to begin selling. At that $100 threshold, Jonas calculated that investors would be assigning zero or even negative value to SpaceX's AI segment, which includes products like Grok and Cursor. Jonas maintains a $300 price target on the stock, with more than 50% of that valuation attributed to the AI business, suggesting he believes the current pessimism is excessive. According to Jonas, many investors he speaks with "significantly discount Grok & Cursor" and ascribe zero or negative value to AI given the high capital expenditure requirements relative to the company's Space and Connectivity divisions, the uncertain path to profitability, and the substantial management attention diverted to the AI efforts. The broader market backdrop has amplified the selloff: investors have rotated away from technology firms committed to hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure spending, while elevated U.S.–Iran tensions and rising oil prices have fueled inflation concerns and darkened sentiment for riskier assets. Despite the share decline, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly positive on SpaceX, with nearly 80% of analysts recommending buys. The average price target among all analysts stands at about $232, implying the stock will more than double from current trading levels. The four other banks leading the offering—Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase—have all issued buy-equivalent ratings. Jonas, best known for his long bullish stance on Tesla and automotive coverage before shifting to AI and humanoid robots last year, remains among the most optimistic voices on SpaceX, ranking third highest in price targets among 33 analysts tracked by Bloomberg. In his Friday note, he reiterated his buy-equivalent rating, stating: "SpaceX remains uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI. We see the current valuation as an attractive entry point."

SpaceX's sharp selloff since its June debut reflects a broader investor rotation away from technology companies with massive AI infrastructure spending commitments. The $86 billion（約14兆円） offering generated initial enthusiasm—shares surged nearly 50% in the first three trading sessions—but sentiment has reversed sharply amid concerns about macroeconomic headwinds, elevated U.S.–Iran tensions pushing oil prices higher, and inflation worries that have soured appetite for risk assets. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas sees this as overcorrection: the fundamentals of the business remain largely unchanged, yet the stock has fallen to a level where his calculation implies investors are pricing in zero or negative value for the AI segment entirely. Jonas's track record carries weight on Wall Street—his past calls on Tesla were known for driving outsized stock moves—and his current bullish stance is shared by nearly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX, with an average price target of about $232 implying substantial upside from current levels.

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