What happened
SpaceX shares have tumbled to near $110 after a record $86 billion offering in mid-June, with some investors expecting them to fall to $100 when insider lockup restrictions lift next month. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argues that at a $100 price point, the market is pricing in zero or negative value for SpaceX's artificial intelligence business (Grok and Cursor).
Why it matters
Jonas's $300 price target assigns more than 50% of value to the AI segment, suggesting the current selloff reflects excessive pessimism. Most investors speaking with the bank discount or assign zero value to AI because of high capital spending requirements, uncertain economics, and the management time devoted to it—even though the broader market rotation away from AI-heavy tech spending has driven the decline.
What to watch
A lockup expiration next month could trigger further selling pressure. Nearly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying, with an average price target of about $232; Jonas's call ranks third highest among 33 analysts tracked by Bloomberg, placing him among Wall Street's most bullish voices on the stock.
Summaries like this, in your inbox every morning.
SpaceX's sharp selloff since its June debut reflects a broader investor rotation away from technology companies with massive AI infrastructure spending commitments. The $86 billion offering generated initial enthusiasm—shares surged nearly 50% in the first three trading sessions—but sentiment has reversed sharply amid concerns about macroeconomic headwinds, elevated U.S.–Iran tensions pushing oil prices higher, and inflation worries that have soured appetite for risk assets. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas sees this as overcorrection: the fundamentals of the business remain largely unchanged, yet the stock has fallen to a level where his calculation implies investors are pricing in zero or negative value for the AI segment entirely. Jonas's track record carries weight on Wall Street—his past calls on Tesla were known for driving outsized stock moves—and his current bullish stance is shared by nearly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX, with an average price target of about $232 implying substantial upside from current levels.
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