Meta's Stock Up 95% in 3 Years; AI Spending Boom Splits Bulls and Bears

Meta's three-year 95% stock surge reflects investor confidence in its core business strengths: a massive and growing user base, powerful network effects, and accelerating revenue growth. The company's sales expanded from 15.7% growth in 2023 to 22.2% in 2025, with analysts forecasting 26.5% in 2026—impressive momentum for a business already at enormous scale. Founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg's stated vision of deploying AI-powered agents and tools to both enterprises and consumers has resonated with the market as a major growth opportunity.

However, the article highlights a critical tension: Meta has transformed from a famously capital-light business into a capital-intensive operation, with AI spending projected to rise dramatically each year. The bear case rests on two key concerns. First, Meta's free cash flow collapsed 91% in the second quarter, and the company's contractual commitments ballooned to $349 billion as of June 30—up from just $28 billion a year earlier—yet these commitments do not appear on standard financial statements. Second, there is genuine uncertainty about whether enterprise and consumer demand for AI will mature beyond the experimental phase to deliver tangible revenue, profit growth, or daily benefits that justify the immense capex. The article suggests reality will likely fall between the bull and bear scenarios, but the outcome hinges on how the AI boom actually evolves—described as a "wildly uncertain" outcome.