Nokia stock surges 157% year-to-date as AI infrastructure play after NVIDIA's $1 billion investment

NVIDIA invested $1 billion in Nokia at $6.01 per share in October 2025. The stock has since risen to roughly $16.85, returning roughly 170% in about six months.

Nokia is pivoting from smartphones to AI infrastructure through two paths: optical networking (via Infinera acquisition for $2.3 billion) and AI-RAN (embedding AI compute directly into wireless networks for edge inference at cell towers rather than in distant data centers).

Nokia's AI and cloud net sales rose 49% in the first quarter of 2026 with about 1 billion euros in booked orders. Management is guiding to comparable operating profit of EUR 2.0 billion to EUR 2.5 billion in 2026, with a EUR 2.7 billion to EUR 3.2 billion target for 2028.

The stock trades at a P/E of 100×, analyst consensus price target sits behind the market price, and the AI-RAN commercial ramp does not arrive in volume until late 2027.