IBM stock plunges 25% on weak guidance; software chief insists no AI threat

On July 14, IBM's stock price fell 25%, marking the worst trading day in the company's history since records began in 1968—a drop steeper even than the October 19, 1987 crash. By week's end, IBM's market capitalization had fallen to just under $200 billion（約32兆円）. The collapse was triggered by a profit warning: IBM reported second-quarter earnings of $2.93 per share on $17.2 billion（約2.8兆円） in revenue, both falling short of Wall Street's consensus expectations of $3.01 per share and $17.86 billion（約2.9兆円）, according to FactSet.

CEO Arvind Krishna explained the miss in a letter to investors, disclosing that in late June customers abruptly shifted purchasing priorities toward AI servers, storage, and memory chips—buying hardware before prices rose—rather than IBM's traditional offerings. Krishna acknowledged that while IBM had anticipated some such reallocation, the magnitude surprised the company. Large deals also slipped past expected close dates. In a CNBC interview, Krishna added that Anthropic's Mythos AI model had prompted some companies to pause their cybersecurity spending while they evaluated actual needs, and that pause was affecting some IBM transactions. Despite the headwinds, Krishna was emphatic: "We don't see our software being disrupted by AI at all."

This is IBM's second major AI-related stock shock in 2024. In February, when Anthropic published a tool capable of rewriting legacy Cobol code, investors feared the move would threaten IBM's aging software business. The stock suffered its worst day in 25 years at that time. Krishna dismissed the fears as market overreaction—and proved correct. By June, the stock had rebounded to new highs. Now, facing a steeper decline on what appears to be a broader customer spending shift, Krishna is repeating his reassurance, leaving investors to judge whether the current move is another false panic or whether a real structural challenge is finally breaking through. Options traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty: the cost of wagering on large IBM stock swings has reached one of its highest levels ever, surpassing even the 2022 interest rate shock, a signal that traders expect volatile moves in either direction rather than consensus on the company's fate.

IBM's July plunge echoes February's AI panic but with a sharper edge. In February, when Anthropic released a Cobol-rewriting tool, investors feared IBM's legacy software franchise would be obsoleted; Krishna dismissed the concerns as overreaction, and he was vindicated—the stock bounced back to new highs by June. This time, however, the stock has fallen even further on a different mechanism: not a single technological threat, but a broad customer spending reallocation toward AI infrastructure, plus real deal delays (some reportedly tied to companies pausing cybersecurity spending while they reassess needs in light of Anthropic's Mythos model). Krishna is again insisting the core business is sound, but the magnitude and nature of the second shock—real revenue and earnings misses, not just market sentiment—suggest investors may be wrestling with something more structural than February's one-product scare. The fact that software sales grew 11% to $7.05 billion（約1.1兆円） in the prior quarter and beat expectations on both metrics offers some support for Krishna's bullish framing, yet it also underscores that the slowdown emerged suddenly.

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