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AI memory demand spreads beyond HBM, says Bernstein

AI memory demand spreads beyond HBM, says Bernstein

Key takeaway

  • AI's memory needs are expanding beyond HBM into DRAM and storage.

  • Bernstein says the investment opportunity depends on the AI workload.

  • KV caches could limit how many users an AI service can support.

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Bernstein analysts say AI is creating a memory bottleneck, with demand expanding from high-bandwidth memory (HBM) into conventional DRAM, NAND flash, and storage. They rate Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Micron, SanDisk, Seagate, and Western Digital as Outperform, while Kioxia is rated Underperform.

  2. Why it matters

    Different AI workloads—training, inference, retrieval-augmented generation, and agentic AI—place different demands on memory. In inference, the "decode" stage is memory-bound and relies on a key-value (KV) cache, which could require more memory than model weights in large deployments, potentially limiting how many users an AI service can support.

  3. What to watch

    Emerging memory tiers, including CXL memory, Nvidia's "Storage Next" initiative, and CMX context storage, aim to balance performance, capacity, and cost. Bernstein notes that technical hurdles remain high for high-bandwidth flash, which seeks to combine HBM-like bandwidth with NAND's greater capacity and lower cost.

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Context & Analysis

The article highlights a shift in AI's memory demands, moving beyond the initial focus on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to include conventional DRAM, NAND flash, and storage. This is driven by the different requirements of AI workloads—training, inference, retrieval-augmented generation, and agentic AI—each placing unique pressures on the memory stack. For instance, while training is compute-intensive and relies heavily on HBM, the decode stage of inference is memory-bound, with KV cache sizes growing with context length and concurrent users. This could limit service capacity, a key concern for AI providers.

The emergence of new memory tiers, such as CXL memory and Nvidia's "Storage Next," reflects an industry effort to manage performance, capacity, and cost. However, technical challenges remain, particularly for high-bandwidth flash, which aims to bridge the gap between HBM's bandwidth and NAND's capacity. Bernstein's ratings suggest confidence in established memory manufacturers, but the dynamic nature of AI workloads means investment opportunities will depend on how these technologies evolve.

FAQ

Why does AI create a memory bottleneck?
AI workloads, including training and inference, require large memory pools for data, caching, and checkpoints. The decode stage of inference is memory-bound, and KV caches can require more memory than model weights.
Which companies did Bernstein rate as Outperform?
Bernstein rates Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Micron, SanDisk, Seagate, and Western Digital as Outperform, while Kioxia is rated Underperform.
What new memory technologies are emerging?
Emerging technologies include CXL memory, Nvidia's "Storage Next" initiative, CMX context storage, and high-bandwidth flash, which combines HBM-like bandwidth with NAND's capacity and cost advantages.
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