Nvidia's $5B stake in Nebius sparks 19% stock jump

Nebius Group, a neocloud infrastructure provider, saw its shares jump nearly 19% on July 21 after the company filed a disclosure with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission revealing that Nvidia holds a 9.3% equity stake valued at just over $5 billion（約8000億円）. This public disclosure of a major ownership position came months after Nvidia's initial investment announcement.

In March of this year, Nvidia announced a $2 billion（約3200億円） investment in Nebius aimed at supporting the company's deployment of more than 5 gigawatts of AI data center capacity by the end of the decade. Since that March 11 announcement, Nebius shares have climbed over 67%, reflecting investor appetite for exposure to AI infrastructure plays backed by Nvidia's credibility.

Nebius operates a comprehensive AI infrastructure platform that goes beyond simple compute rental. The company provides dedicated AI data centers to customers running AI workloads in the cloud, but also offers an end-to-end software and platform layer. Its Token Factory software solution is designed to help customers scale their models, build AI agents, and perform other tasks—enabling the company to capitalize on the fast-growing inference segment of the AI market. Management noted on the company's May earnings call that Token Factory is experiencing solid traction among customers. Additionally, Nebius' cloud platform is being used for physical AI solutions development, a segment the article projects could grow by more than 100× in revenue between 2026 and 2040, ultimately generating $383 billion（約61兆円） in revenue by the end of that period.

The addressable market is substantial: research firm Gartner projects the neocloud infrastructure market will generate over $53 billion（約8.5兆円） in revenue in 2030. Nebius currently generates $878 million（約1400億円） in trailing twelve-month revenue, leaving significant room for expansion. The company has also secured lucrative deals with major hyperscalers (large cloud providers) that should support sustained growth. Analysts are anticipating meaningful acceleration in top-line growth driven by the company's backlog. At current valuations of 57 times sales, Nebius trades expensively relative to the broader tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which has a multiple of 5.1. However, if revenue grows 7× over the next two years as some analysts project, and if the stock eventually trades at the Nasdaq's multiple valuation by the end of 2028 (based on an estimated $21.6 billion（約3.5兆円） in 2028 revenue), the market capitalization could reach $110 billion（約18兆円）—more than double its current $48 billion（約7.7兆円） valuation.

Nebius Group's share surge reflects investor confidence in both the company's growth trajectory and Nvidia's validation of its strategy. Nvidia's March announcement of a $2 billion（約3200億円） investment signaled strong backing from the world's dominant AI chip maker, and the subsequent SEC filing revealing a 9.3% stake underscores the depth of that commitment. Since Nvidia's initial backing was announced on March 11, the stock has climbed over 67%, suggesting the market has been pricing in the infrastructure boom that Nebius is positioned to capture.

The company's appeal lies in its dual-revenue model: it earns from renting out compute capacity through its data centers, but also from high-margin software and platform services like Token Factory, which addresses the growing inference segment of the AI workload market. With the neocloud infrastructure market alone projected to reach over $53 billion（約8.5兆円） by 2030 and Nebius having generated only $878 million（約1400億円） in trailing twelve-month revenue, the addressable expansion is substantial. Analysts' expectations of a 7× revenue increase within two years suggest the backlog of customer commitments is translating into genuine near-term acceleration.

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