Amazon, Google hold $411 billion Anthropic stake at $78 IPO price

The windfall is not cash in hand. Amazon's position is the larger and cheaper one, built on notes with about $6.2 billion outstanding at September 30 that convert at fixed prices of roughly $2.09 and $5.05 per share. But a 12% cap on its holding means a large part of the stake arrives only over time: 1,920,511,218 Class N shares after the offering, and another 1,563,617,444 issued later. Google's 2026 agreement carries its own 14.99% cap, and neither company gains control through the Class N shares.

Both companies also sell computing power to Anthropic, so the same customer shows up in two places. AWS revenue rose 39% to $45.98 billion and Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.71 billion, and part of that growth depends on a single AI customer staying well funded. Once Anthropic trades publicly, each company will mark its stake to market price, which could swing reported earnings every quarter.

Lock-ups keep most of the paper gain out of reach for a while. Most existing holders face lock-ups of up to 180 days, and certain holders of more than 0.5% of fully diluted shares face up to 365 days. Google's placement shares have no lock-up but are restricted securities resellable only under a registration statement or an exemption. Bankers reportedly expect pricing above the range toward a $1.5 trillion valuation, which one outside estimate puts at roughly $83 a share, but a price below the range or post-listing swings would lower the paper value just as easily.