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Taiwan's stock market has surged over 100% in the past year as retail investors borrow heavily to buy shares, raising concerns among economists about an unsustainable bubble.

Japan Times Tech3h ago3 min read
Taiwan's stock market has surged over 100% in the past year as retail investors borrow heavily to buy shares, raising concerns among economists about an unsustainable bubble.

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3 Key Points

  • What happened

    Taiwan's benchmark stock index has risen over 100% in the past year, becoming the world's fifth largest market and overtaking the U.K., Canada and India in that timeframe. The rally has been fueled by heavy borrowing at low interest rates, with brokerages hitting internal lending limits and being forced to demand more collateral and raise rates. The borrowing surge was so intense that it disrupted a central bank debt auction on June 3, when insufficient buyers showed up for the first time ever.

  • Why it matters

    Taiwan is the world's leading producer of the chips that power AI technology, making its market a bellwether for global tech sentiment. However, economists worry the rapid gains are unsustainable. Dachrahn Wu, professor at the National Central University's economics department, warns that a sudden sharp sell-off could trigger 'devastating losses' for young investors who view equities as low-risk money makers. The borrowing binge has spread across the financial system—individuals are not only maxing out broker loans but also taking new bank loans and canceling financial products to free up cash for stock purchases.

  • What to watch

    Teenagers are opening brokerage accounts in large numbers, and trading volumes have spiked so sharply that they've crashed some firms' websites. The intensity of retail participation, combined with heavy leverage, means any market correction could expose a wide swath of unsophisticated investors to significant losses. Investors shut out by brokers are shifting to bank loans instead, deepening systemic exposure.

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