Nvidia's market share in AI inference has reached 74%, suggesting the chipmaker's dominance will persist even as the inference market grows much larger than training—and analysts believe the stock could triple by 2030.

What happened

Nvidia increased its market share in AI inference workloads by eight percentage points to 74% over the past year, according to The Information. Meanwhile, inference now accounts for two-thirds of AI workloads today, up from one-third in 2023. Wall Street expects the AI infrastructure market to reach $4 trillion（約640兆円） by 2030, up from about $1 trillion（約160兆円） today, at a compound annual growth rate of 36%.

What to watch

Beth Kindig, lead technology analyst at the I/O Fund, believes Nvidia will be a $20 trillion（約3200兆円） company by 2030. From its current market capitalization of $5.1 trillion（約820兆円）, that prediction implies 292% upside over the next four-and-a-half years. Wall Street's median target price of $300 per share implies 42% upside from the current share price of $210.