Meta is spending $130 billion to $145 billion this year on AI infrastructure, but the company's AI chatbots have lost market share to competitors like ChatGPT and Claude, leaving it with excess compute capacity.
Zuckerberg is now considering selling that spare capacity to other AI companies—a move that suggests Meta cannot find profitable ways to use the AI systems it has already invested heavily in.
While Meta's advertising business is growing strongly, the heavy capex spending is outpacing revenue growth and eroding operating margins, raising doubts about whether the stock is a buy even below $600.
What happened
Meta spent $30 billion on capital expenditures last quarter and plans to spend $130 billion to $145 billion for the full year, mostly on AI infrastructure. Zuckerberg's team is now exploring selling excess compute capacity to other AI companies, similar to deals SpaceX has signed that generate tens of billions in annual revenue.
Why it matters
Meta's heavy AI spending is outpacing its advertising revenue growth—operating margin fell from 43% a year ago to 31% in Q2 2026, and EBIT fell for the first time in a long while last quarter. The fact that Meta is considering selling compute power signals it cannot find internal uses for the AI infrastructure it has already invested tens of billions developing, a bearish indicator that depreciation will continue to pressure earnings ahead.
What to watch
Meta's core advertising business remains strong, with revenue growing 28% year over year to $61 billion last quarter, driven by targeting improvements across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. However, unless Meta can monetize its AI investments to generate tens of billions in revenue or reverse its aggressive capex plan, earnings are likely to continue shrinking, making the stock's $600 price tag less attractive despite its 22 price-to-earnings ratio relative to other tech peers.
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Meta's AI spending trajectory reveals a disconnect between ambition and return. The company deployed $30 billion in capex last quarter and plans to commit $130 billion to $145 billion annually, yet its AI chatbots command only a sliver of the market against Alphabet's Gemini, OpenAI's ChatGPT, and Anthropic's Claude. The shift toward selling excess compute capacity—compared to deals SpaceX has signed generating tens of billions annually—suggests Meta views this infrastructure not as a path to AI product dominance but as a cost-recovery mechanism. The financial strain is already visible: operating margin contracted from 43% a year ago to 31% in Q2 2026, and EBIT fell for the first time in a long while despite a 28% year-over-year revenue jump to $61 billion driven by advertising. The core advertising business remains robust and growing, but it cannot keep pace with the depreciation flowing through the income statement as capex compounds without offsetting AI revenue. Unless Meta either reverses these aggressive investments or monetizes them to generate tens of billions in new revenue, earnings are positioned to shrink over the next few years, making the stock's valuation relative to peers less compelling despite its sub-$600 price and 22 P/E ratio.
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