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SaaS pessimism was wrong: Salesforce, Booking, IBM show AI gains

SaaS pessimism was wrong: Salesforce, Booking, IBM show AI gains

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Despite fears of an AI-driven 'SaaSpocalypse,' Salesforce, Booking Holdings, and IBM are positioned as AI winners. Salesforce's Agentforce grew from $100 million to $1.5 billion in annual recurring revenue in 18 months, and IBM says AI now accounts for half of its new consulting signings.

  2. Why it matters

    The panic that erased about $2 trillion in software value was misplaced. These companies' strengths—Salesforce's customer data, Booking's role as merchant of record, IBM's consulting margins—turn AI into an advantage, not a threat. Wells Fargo analysts noted, 'lower cost of intelligence increases value of incumbent data.'

  3. What to watch

    Booking said AI-sourced traffic is still below 1% of room nights, suggesting early upside. IBM's stock fell 25% in a day but a third of lost deals closed shortly after, hinting at recovery.

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Context & Analysis

The article argues that the market's fear of AI replacing software companies was overblown, as evidenced by the three examples. Salesforce's data moat, Booking's transactional role, and IBM's consulting shift to outcome-based billing all show how AI can enhance, not destroy, their businesses.

The SaaSpocalypse narrative evolved from 'death' to margin compression, but the article contends this too is wrong. For instance, Salesforce's data becomes more valuable as AI lowers intelligence costs, and Booking's infrastructure is irreplaceable for smaller hotels.

Looking ahead, these companies' AI investments may yield further gains. IBM's Red Hat grew 11% as AI creates new software needs, while Booking's AI traffic is still minimal, suggesting room for growth. The key takeaway: AI is a tool for incumbents with data and infrastructure, not just a disruptor.

FAQ
How did Salesforce benefit from AI despite the bearish narrative?
Salesforce's Agentforce platform grew from $100 million to $1.5 billion in annual recurring revenue within 18 months. The company processed over 216 trillion customer records this year, positioning it as a key AI beneficiary.
What makes Booking Holdings resilient to AI disruption?
Booking is the merchant of record on roughly three-quarters of its bookings, handling payments across 50 currencies. Its infrastructure supports 90% of bookings from independent properties, which AI platforms cannot easily replace.

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