Cerebras backlog hits $25.4B, OpenAI deal behind much of it

The $25.4 billion backlog is a striking number, but it is not revenue in hand. It represents contracted work, and most of it is scheduled to convert after mid-2028. Cerebras is still building the capacity it has sold, with OpenAI capacity deploying in stages from 2026 through 2028. The company has more than 600 megawatts of data center capacity live or under contract for delivery by the end of 2027, and it announced a new 165-megawatt data center in Finland.

Concentration is a key risk. In 2025, two customers—Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence and Group 42—accounted for 62% and 24% of revenue, respectively. In the second quarter, three customers each accounted for at least 10% of revenue, or 76% combined. This reliance on a short list of buyers, especially OpenAI, means the backlog's value depends on those customers' continued needs.

The stock's valuation already reflects high expectations. Trading near $215, down about 44% from its 52-week high, the company is valued near $51 billion—nearly 58 times expected adjusted revenue this year. Even if revenue more than triples in 2027, the stock would trade at about 19 times those expected sales. The backlog is evidence of extraordinary demand, but the conversion timeline and customer concentration argue for caution.