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AI Coding AssistantsAI Business & IndustrySemafor TechPublished: Oct 21, 2026, 01:00 JST

Thoma Bravo's Orlando Bravo: AI won't kill software

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Thoma Bravo's Orlando Bravo: AI won't kill software

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Orlando Bravo, whose Thoma Bravo oversees $170 billion in software investments, said AI coding bots won't replace enterprise software. Software has been doubted four times before and boomed after each, he said.

  2. Why it matters

    Bravo argues the real question is domain expertise and how hard it is to replicate, not code itself.

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Context & Analysis

Bravo's comments come after a sharp decline earlier this year in software stocks ground dealmaking in the sector to a halt, as CEOs were reluctant to sell at the bottom and private-equity firms struggled to raise debt. That freeze is starting to thaw, with deals like Schneider's $23 billion acquisition of PTC and the $6 billion takeover last week of AI cybersecurity company Varonis by a Thoma-backed competitor. Bravo's argument is that the market is mispricing the threat from AI coding bots. Using Dayforce, an HR-software provider Thoma Bravo bought in 2025, as an example, he said the company sells payroll reliability and liability, not code. "Yeah, somebody could try to recreate their code," Bravo said. "Great. The business is not about that." He also warned that the coming IPOs of "monster companies" like Anthropic and OpenAI will crowd others out of the capital markets, which would be bad news for the private equity industry and its estimated $3.8 trillion backlog of unsold companies. "Who's gonna pay attention with this stuff when they have to make big decisions on this enormous capital?" he said.

FAQ
What does Bravo say actually protects software companies from AI?
Domain expertise and how difficult it is to replicate, he said. Dayforce, for example, sells payroll reliability and liability, not code.
How much is Thoma Bravo's software exposure?
The firm oversees $170 billion in investments, nearly all of it in corporate software.
Why does Bravo say coming AI IPOs matter to private equity?
He said IPOs from "monster companies" like Anthropic and OpenAI will crowd others out of capital markets, bad news for private equity sitting on an estimated $3.8 trillion backlog of unsold companies.
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