Wolfe Research told investors on Thursday that it remains broadly bullish on artificial intelligence semiconductor stocks heading into earnings season, with Nvidia as its top pick.
The firm cited greater clarity on financing arrangements—including recent large deals from Nvidia and Broadcom that help AI labs fund multi-gigawatt agreements—as well as strong capital expenditure trends across the group.
Wolfe expects guidance for future years to be the main catalyst, and believes Nvidia's limited disclosures leave meaningful scope for upside to Wall Street consensus.
What happened
Wolfe Research told clients that clarity on how AI labs are financing multi-gigawatt chip deals, along with strong capital expenditure trends, supports continued confidence in artificial intelligence semiconductor stocks. The firm named Nvidia as its top pick, citing limited disclosures that leave room for upside to consensus.
Why it matters
Large financing arrangements from Nvidia and Broadcom are helping AI labs unable to access conventional debt markets fund the multi-gigawatt agreements they signed over the past one to two years. Wolfe sees guidance for 2027 and 2028 as the key catalyst for the sector, since near-term results offer limited visibility into those years.
What to watch
On Marvell, Wolfe called the newly announced Google deal potentially transformational, with the warrant profile implying $120 billion of incremental revenue potential through fiscal 2033. The firm is not counting on multiple expansion from current levels.
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Wolfe Research's bullish stance on AI semiconductor stocks reflects a shift in visibility around how the sector will sustain growth beyond the near term. The firm's emphasis on financing arrangements—specifically the recent large deals from Nvidia and Broadcom—highlights a real constraint that had been opaque: AI labs signing multi-gigawatt agreements over the past one to two years needed funding sources outside conventional debt markets. While Wolfe notes that the decision by both companies to backstop these deals is "not ideal," it argues the arrangements point to significant upside potential in the firm's forecasts. By keeping estimates unchanged heading into earnings, Wolfe is signaling that Wall Street is already pricing in much of the near-term strength; the real opportunity lies in visibility into 2027 and 2028, where guidance will become the key driver of sentiment.
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